The Brief

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

“Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack!”– John Bogle

MARKET & MACRO DATA

	Value	1D	1M	YTD	1Y	ATH
S&P 500	7,620	▼ 0.48%	▼ 2.13%	▲ 11.10%	▲ 15.19%	▼ 2.52%
Nasdaq	26,186	▼ 0.56%	▼ 2.03%	▲ 12.70%	▲ 17.17%	▼ 3.69%
Russell 2000	2,892	▼ 0.40%	▼ 5.74%	▲ 15.31%	▲ 20.25%	▼ 5.78%
EM (EEM)	$66	▼ 2.73%	▼ 0.93%	▲ 17.34%	▲ 25.36%	▼ 7.80%
Financials (XLF)	$57	▼ 0.38%	▼ 1.94%	▲ 3.82%	▲ 6.24%	▼ 2.68%
Energy (XLE)	$65	▼ 0.94%	▲ 4.23%	▲ 41.36%	▲ 46.16%	▼ 29.04%
Technology (XLK)	$184	▼ 1.81%	▼ 3.02%	▲ 27.71%	▲ 34.85%	▼ 15.25%
AI ETF (SMH)	$542	▼ 4.75%	▼ 7.88%	▲ 45.06%	▲ 76.29%	▼ 19.40%
Cons Disc (XLY)	$113	▼ 0.10%	▼ 4.53%	▼ 4.65%	▼ 6.23%	▼ 38.78%
Gold ($/oz)	$4,322	▼ 0.68%	▼ 2.16%	▲ 0.19%	▲ 17.39%	▼ 22.62%
Bitcoin (USD)	$77,120	▼ 1.34%	▲ 22.77%	▼ 14.26%	▼ 33.20%	▼ 38.89%
Copper ($/lb)	$6.40	▲ 1.14%	▼ 3.06%	▲ 13.51%	▲ 37.51%	▼ 5.93%
Brent Oil ($/bbl)	$101	▼ 4.03%	▲ 11.61%	▲ 66.95%	▲ 50.39%	▼ 31.21%
Nat Gas ($/MMBtu)	$2.88	▼ 0.41%	▲ 7.21%	▼ 20.29%	▼ 5.23%	▼ 81.72%
VIX (Volatility)	17.17	▲ 0.41%	▲ 13.03%	▲ 18.33%	▲ 9.43%	▼ 80.82%
3-Month T-Bill	4.07%	▲ 7bps	▲ 20bps	▲ 42bps	▼ 1bps	▼ 156bps
2Y Treasury	4.63%	▲ 7bps	▲ 43bps	▲ 116bps	▲ 111bps	▼ 56bps
10Y Treasury	4.96%	▲ 1bps	▲ 28bps	▲ 77bps	▲ 95bps	▼ 30bps
US HY Spread	2.65%	▼ 5bps	▼ 6bps	▼ 18bps	▼ 13bps	▼ 196bps
US Dollar Index (DXY)	99.63	▲ 0.17%	▼ 0.01%	▲ 1.23%	▲ 2.40%	▼ 39.51%
US Unemployment	4.10%	Aug 2026 · Next release: October 2, 2026
US CPI (YoY)	3.40%	Aug 2026 · BLS CPI-U all items NSA
SOFR 3M (90d avg)	3.65%	Rate only · n/a across change periods

ECONOMICS, MARKETS & BUSINESS

No one and done: The Fed will hike at least two times over the next year, according to CNBC survey – While higher oil is cited as a main reason for the change in view, roughly three quarters of respondents see the inflation problem as broader than just energy prices. Ask Claude ›
Stock Investors Should Root for a Rate Hike. Yeah, Really. – Plus, winners and losers of the AI freakout Ask Claude ›
10-year Treasury yield rises to highest since 2007 as Fed rate-hike expectations rise – The sell-off in U.S. government debt is deepening as investors increasingly price in an interest rate hike this week. Ask Claude ›
Oil and Treasury yields haven’t moved this closely in seven years. That’s bad news for markets – Oil and 10-year Treasury yields are moving in near lockstep, with their correlation at its strongest since 2019. Ask Claude ›
The ex-JPMorgan banker facing Wall Street’s toughest turnaround job – Takis Georgakopoulos became chief executive of Fiserv just as it confronted big cultural and structural challenges Ask Claude ›
Wall Street weighs prospect of an AI slowdown on data center buildout – Investors see a potential AI slowdown as problematic for companies tied to the data center buildout. Ask Claude ›
Hedge Funds Face Scrutiny Over Growing Treasury Footprint – Plus, Wall Street’s AI train steams ahead, and China swipes the Driscoll’s secret for growing blueberries. Ask Claude ›
Global Bond Selloff Deepens as 10-Year Yields Hit Multiyear Highs – The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007 and yields on 10-year German and Japanese government bonds were at multiyear highs. Ask Claude ›
Bond Yields Could Come Down as Fast as They’ve Climbed – Expectations for what the Fed will do are driving the recent moves in long-term yields. Ask Claude ›
What to watch as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies before Congress – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may face questions on rising energy prices, Federal Reserve policy, government debt and the Trump team's economic agenda. Ask Claude ›
European Chip Stocks Mixed After Monday Rout – Shares of European semiconductor companies were mixed after calls for a slowdown in the development of advanced artificial-intelligence models. Ask Claude ›
Oil extends gains, Brent crude nears $108 following Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia – Oil extended gains amid reports of fresh Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and attacks by Iran on ships in the Gulf. Ask Claude ›

TECH & AI

Jensen Huang took a call from Trump, and showed off something else, too – When Jensen Huang took a live call from Trump, some of us were more focused the phone he used to take it. Ask Claude ›
Pubs in England and Wales to allow digital ID apps to prove age – New rules introduced on Tuesday mean establishments will be able to accept digital ID apps alongside physical documents. Ask Claude ›
OpenAI buys smartphone camera maker Glass Imaging for $300 million, report says – Glass Imaging was founded by a pair of former Apple engineers who previously led the team that developed Apple's Portrait Mode. Ask Claude ›
AI infrastructure company Cornelis raises $205M to chip away at Nvidia’s dominance – The company also announced a product called Active Compute Fabric, a network technology that targets the fact that much GPU time is wasted waiting for data to arrive. Ask Claude ›
Amazon Prime Video takes on TikTok with short-form news clips – Prime Video is adding on-demand local and national news clips as Amazon joins other streamers experimenting with short-form video to capture younger viewers. Ask Claude ›
ClickFix attacks are tricking Mac and Windows users into hacking themselves – If you clicked on a fake HBO Max ad on Reddit in the past week, you might have fallen victim to a rising "ClickFix" security threat. Ask Claude ›
Volkswagen’s crazy-efficient EV borrows an idea from Slate – Volkswagen's new efficiency-minded halo car is almost twice as efficient as the most efficient production car, the Lucid Air. Ask Claude ›
With iOS 27, I’m actually using Siri again – Apple’s long-delayed Siri overhaul is finally here with iOS 27, and it changes how useful the assistant feels day to day. Ask Claude ›

WORLD & INTERNATIONAL

Russian warship fires flares at Danish helicopter over Baltic Sea – Denmark says one of the flares passed the aircraft at close range, branding the action as ‘reckless’ Ask Claude ›
Listening rooms are the new TV snug – Spaces dedicated to audio rather than visuals are being embraced as a way to escape the noise of life Ask Claude ›
Sullivan & Cromwell hires team of Kirkland partners in private equity push – White-shoe law firm had largely avoided acting for buyout groups even as the industry’s boom propelled rival firms to rapid growth Ask Claude ›
Scott Bessent’s wobbly house – Politics seems to be messing with the US Treasury secretary’s head Ask Claude ›
Food crisis fears ease as fertiliser exporters fill gap left by Iran war – Countries outside the Gulf increase market share of urea exports as supplies through Strait of Hormuz collapse Ask Claude ›
UK state pension will surpass income tax threshold next year – Labour pledge to keep state pension out of tax puts pressure on chancellor to raise allowance or find workaround Ask Claude ›
China Tightens Exit Restrictions as Tech Race With U.S. Intensifies – The measures allow Beijing to stop its citizens from leaving for months or years if they violate export controls. Ask Claude ›
Meloni presses ahead with election law that boosts her far-right rival – Firebrand former general Roberto Vannacci could have oversized influence over Italian prime minister’s re-election prospects Ask Claude ›

EARNINGS RELEASES (next 15 days)

Date	Company	EPS Forecast	Watch
Sep 16	Lennar LEN	$1.29	Mortgage rates, housing demand, and land and construction costs
Sep 22	AutoZone AZO	$54.97	Vehicle sales, parts demand, and consumer auto spending
Sep 23	Cintas CTAS	$1.35	Contract renewals and outsourcing demand
Sep 23	Paychex PAYX	$1.33	Hiring demand and labor market trends
Sep 23	General Mills GIS	$0.71	Input costs and pricing power
Sep 24	Costco Wholesale COST	$6.48	Grocery and staples volume and price competition
Sep 24	Darden Restaurants DRI	$2.06	Traffic trends and input and labor cost inflation

WEEK AHEAD

Date	Event
Sep 15–16, 2026	FOMC Meeting & Rate Decision (Sep 15–16, 2026) – Rate decision Sep 16 at 2 PM ET First updated quarterly rate-path forecast since summer; will set the tone for how the Fed sees rates through year-end.

ON THE RADAR

Date	Event
Sep 25, 2026	U.S. PCE Price Index (August) Last PCE before Oct FOMC. Fed needs to see sustained progress toward 2% target.
Oct 2, 2026	U.S. Jobs Report (September) Q3 labour market health check; impacts Oct FOMC hold/cut decision.
Oct 14, 2026	U.S. CPI (September) Q3 inflation summary; key input for Nov and Dec FOMC decisions.
Oct 27–28, 2026	FOMC Meeting & Rate Decision (Oct 27–28, 2026) – Rate decision Oct 28 at 2 PM ET No updated rate-path forecast at this meeting; decision driven by September jobs and inflation data. Market consensus: hold.
Oct 29, 2026	U.S. Q3 2026 GDP Advance Estimate Consensus: +1.8% annualized – First read on Q3 growth; consensus +1.8% annualized after a soft Q2. A miss would reinforce rate cut case.

Marz Capital – The Brief · Sourced from Yahoo Finance, BLS, StatsCan, FRED, CNBC, Reuters & web search · Note: some 1M/YTD/1Y market columns show n/a where data was unavailable at time of research · Treasury "ATH" reflects the past 20 years, not full history, since older-regime peaks (e.g. ~15% in 1981) aren't a meaningful comparison to today

Marz Capital, 475 Kent Ave, Brooklyn, NY 11249

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