The Brief

Friday, September 25, 2026

“Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy.”– John Bogle

SUMMARY

Treasury yields extend their rise as Warsh's Fed signals further rate hikes remain on the table.

Oil tumbles below $100 on hopes for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Energy stocks rise even as crude slides, unwinding some of the fear priced into the sector.

Technology and AI names slip domestically even as AI enthusiasm rallies European peers.

Gold jumps as investors hedge against sticky inflation and a Fed leaning hawkish.

Consumer Discretionary underperforms as inflation and rising rates squeeze household budgets.

VIX falls as the bond selloff abates alongside the drop in oil prices.

Emerging markets lag as Treasury yields climb, pressuring the asset class.

MARKET & MACRO DATA

	Value	1D	1M	YTD	1Y	ATH
S&P 500	7,704	▼ 0.02%	▲ 0.35%	▲ 12.33%	▲ 16.65%	▼ 1.44%
Nasdaq	26,939	▲ 0.01%	▲ 3.01%	▲ 15.94%	▲ 20.35%	▼ 1.28%
Russell 2000	2,836	▼ 0.11%	▼ 5.80%	▲ 13.05%	▲ 17.61%	▼ 7.63%
EM (EEM)	$67	▼ 0.68%	▲ 0.00%	▲ 19.58%	▲ 27.34%	▼ 6.04%
Financials (XLF)	$55	▼ 0.02%	▼ 6.48%	▼ 0.73%	▲ 1.98%	▼ 6.95%
Energy (XLE)	$63	▲ 0.37%	▲ 0.87%	▲ 37.13%	▲ 37.36%	▼ 31.16%
Technology (XLK)	$195	▼ 0.32%	▲ 7.14%	▲ 34.93%	▲ 40.08%	▼ 10.45%
AI ETF (SMH)	$601	▼ 0.15%	▲ 8.04%	▲ 60.87%	▲ 87.04%	▼ 10.61%
Cons Disc (XLY)	$110	▼ 0.30%	▼ 6.47%	▼ 6.78%	▼ 6.60%	▼ 40.15%
Gold ($/oz)	$4,347	▲ 1.13%	▼ 6.59%	▲ 0.39%	▲ 15.26%	▼ 22.19%
Bitcoin (USD)	$85,114	▲ 0.87%	▲ 7.70%	▼ 5.37%	▼ 21.95%	▼ 32.56%
Copper ($/lb)	$6.79	▲ 1.11%	▲ 3.01%	▲ 20.44%	▲ 44.53%	▼ 0.54%
Brent Oil ($/bbl)	$99	▼ 7.27%	▲ 12.53%	▲ 62.72%	▲ 42.39%	▼ 32.95%
Nat Gas ($/MMBtu)	$3.24	▼ 1.61%	▲ 14.14%	▼ 10.34%	▲ 11.71%	▼ 79.44%
VIX (Volatility)	15.35	▼ 2.04%	▲ 0.92%	▲ 5.79%	▼ 8.30%	▼ 82.85%
3-Month T-Bill	4.19%	▲ 3bps	▲ 32bps	▲ 54bps	▲ 19bps	▼ 144bps
2Y Treasury	4.85%	▲ 14bps	▲ 61bps	▲ 138bps	▲ 132bps	▼ 34bps
10Y Treasury	5.11%	▲ 15bps	▲ 41bps	▲ 92bps	▲ 99bps	▼ 15bps
US HY Spread	2.73%	▲ 5bps	▲ 4bps	▼ 10bps	▲ 2bps	▼ 188bps
US Dollar Index (DXY)	101.04	▼ 0.25%	▲ 1.88%	▲ 2.66%	▲ 2.52%	▼ 38.66%
US Unemployment	4.10%	Aug 2026 · Next release: October 2, 2026
US CPI (YoY)	3.40%	Aug 2026 · BLS CPI-U all items NSA
SOFR 3M (90d avg)	3.66%	Rate only · n/a across change periods

ECONOMICS, MARKETS & BUSINESS

Eurozone Bond Yields Fall as Oil Prices Decline; U.S. Treasury Yields Edge Higher – Eurozone government bond yields fell on Friday due to a retreat in oil prices, while U.S. Treasury yields mostly edged higher. Ask Claude ›
Stock Market Today: Bond Selloff Abates as Oil Price Slips – Hopes for a deal to reopen Hormuz drive Brent crude futures down Ask Claude ›
Trump raised weak yen in talks with Takaichi, Japan finance minister says – Satsuki Katayama signals prospect of fresh currency intervention with US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent’s blessing Ask Claude ›
Treasury Yields Resume Their Rise Ask Claude ›
Surging Treasury yields pose a brand new problem for Kevin Warsh and the Fed – Markets expect the central bank will take a firmer hand on inflation. It's not that easy. Ask Claude ›
Warsh's regime change at the Fed pushes ahead – and meets resistance – Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is driving rapid change in some areas, while his emerging policy framework suggests further rate hikes remain possible. Ask Claude ›
US seizes bank accounts of payments group linked to Tether – Prosecutors allege Capstone illegally moved hundreds of millions of dollars for the crypto companies at the direction of a Caribbean bank Ask Claude ›
Pharma stock soars 150% on injectables deal with Wegovy maker Novo – Shares in Swedish microcap stock Nanexa more than doubled after the drug-delivery group revealed a licensing deal with European pharma giant Novo Nordisk. Ask Claude ›
European AI-Related Stocks Rally as Confidence Returns – European stocks linked to the buildout in AI rallied as investors’ enthusiasm around AI picked up. Ask Claude ›
US backs Elon Musk's bid to overturn €120m EU fine against X – The EU had said X "deceives users" by selling blue ticks without "meaningfully verifying" accounts. Ask Claude ›
Euro at Risk of Renewed Falls on Energy Prices, U.S. Data, French-German Yield Spread – The euro rose against the dollar after falling to an eight-week low Thursday, and ING said it could reach could reach support of $1.1320-$1.1330 quickly if oil jumps or U.S. data is better than expect Ask Claude ›
Bank Lending to Eurozone Businesses Halved in August – The decline is a sign that rising borrowing costs following the European Central Bank’s decision to raise its key interest rate are hindering investment. Ask Claude ›

TECH & AI

Why Australia chose the world's biggest political stage to reveal OpenAI hack – Australia, which has strict social media restrictions and has proposed controls on algorithms and smart glasses, announced the breach at the UN. Ask Claude ›
Google Photos ‘Clueless’-inspired virtual closet is now available on Android and iOS – The AI-powered feature builds a virtual wardrobe from your photos, and is now broadly available after first rolling out to Android users in June. Ask Claude ›
Rogue OpenAI agent 'infiltrated' Australian government website in world first – Australia criticised OpenAI for taking "too long" to tell them about the breach which happened in June. Ask Claude ›
US rejects pleas from OpenAI, Anthropic for global AI standards – OpenAI's Sam Altman has called for risk evaluation standards, as have Anthropic's Dario Amodei and Hugging Face's Clement Delangue. Ask Claude ›
Lightspeed targets $250M for new India fund, focusing on early-stage AI – The venture firm is aligning its India fundraising cycle with its global funds for the first time, as it shifts to a shorter investment period. Ask Claude ›
Waymo is scaling fast: Here’s what the fleet data shows – In the past month, Waymo has expanded its fleet in Texas by 49%. There are other hot spots as well. Ask Claude ›
X-planes: Are they needed in the new era of drones? – Where do America's X-plane projects fit in an era of cheap drones? Ask Claude ›
Nexterity wants to automate the hard, dangerous part of pipefitting – The startup's robot can tighten or loosen four bolts at a time, and it fits in a Pelican case. Ask Claude ›

WORLD & POLITICS

ArcelorMittal to shutter Ukraine plant after Russian strikes kill workers – Steel giant faces $1bn impairment charge in wake of attack on Kryvyi Rih operations Ask Claude ›
Trump Welcomes Xi to White House With Pageantry but Few Concrete Gains – The summit marks Xi Jinping‘s first visit to Washington in over a decade, as the two leaders look to ease brewing tensions over the war in Iran, artificial intelligence and trade. Ask Claude ›
Behind Summit Pageantry, Xi’s Eyes Were on Taiwan – The Chinese leader came to Washington looking for ways to sway Trump’s position on the island democracy. Ask Claude ›
Trump and Xi exchange warm words at state dinner but little progress on key issues – Despite diplomatic niceties and gifts, little was shared on substantial issues separating the leaders. Ask Claude ›
Hurricane Polo barrels towards Baja California region of Mexico – Area’s second-most intense hurricane on record being fuelled by exceptionally warm Pacific waters Hurricane Polo is barreling towards the Baja California region of Mexico, the latest system in a Pacif Ask Claude ›
FirstFT: The Xi-Trump finale – Also in today’s newsletter: Iran makes proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the financial risks of AI Ask Claude ›
Hundreds of thousands expected in Paris for Pope's visit – The highpoint of his time in Paris will be a giant Mass attended by more than half a million people. Ask Claude ›
Did Putin Really Think I Was a Spy? – In an exclusive excerpt from his new book, “This Cursed Beautiful Land,” Evan Gershkovich searches for answers about his arrest while reporting in Russia. Ask Claude ›

DEALS

Precision Neuroscience, a New York-based brain-computer interface company, closed an oversubscribed $250 million Series D financing round co-led by Pershing Square and the Ackman Oxman Institute, along with an undisclosed life sciences fund, bringing its total capital raised to $430 million and valuing the company at just over $1 billion. Source ›
Priority Technology Holdings, a Nasdaq-listed payments and banking technology provider, agreed to go private in an all-cash deal worth about $1.6 billion in enterprise value, with an investor group led by Chairman and CEO Thomas Priore paying $8.05 per share and the transaction backed by equity commitments from Searchlight Capital Partners. Source ›
ITM Isotope Technologies Munich, a privately held German radioisotope manufacturer, will be acquired by Australia's Telix Pharmaceuticals for $1.65 billion upfront on a cash-free, debt-free basis, plus up to $700 million in additional milestone payments tied to regulatory approval and sales of ITM's lead radiopharmaceutical candidate. Source ›
Dianomi, a London-based ad network connecting finance and business advertisers like Charles Schwab and Bank of America with premium publishers such as Reuters and the Wall Street Journal, agreed to be acquired by Taboola in a deal valued at up to roughly £27 million to bolster Taboola's Realize performance-advertising platform in the finance vertical. Source ›

EARNINGS RELEASES (next 15 days)

Date	Company	EPS Forecast	Watch
Sep 29	Carnival Corporation CCL	$1.36	Travel demand and occupancy and booking trends
Sep 30	Micron Technology MU	$31.24	Chip demand, supply bottlenecks, and AI infrastructure spending
Sep 30	Jabil JBL	$3.86	Contract manufacturing volumes and customer concentration
Oct 1	Accenture ACN	$3.19	Enterprise IT spending and project pipelines
Oct 1	Nike NKE	$0.44	Consumer discretionary spending and brand pricing power
Oct 1	McCormick & Company MKC	$0.75	Input costs and pricing power
Oct 6	Constellation Brands STZ	$3.63	Consumer spending on premium beverages
Oct 8	Pepsico PEP	$2.30	Volume trends and input cost inflation
Oct 9	Delta Air Lines DAL	$2.03	Ticket demand and fuel costs

WEEK AHEAD

Date	Event
Sep 25, 2026	U.S. PCE Price Index (August) Last PCE before Oct FOMC. Fed needs to see sustained progress toward 2% target.

ON THE RADAR

Date	Event
Oct 2, 2026	U.S. Jobs Report (September) Q3 labour market health check; impacts Oct FOMC hold/cut decision.
Oct 14, 2026	U.S. CPI (September) Q3 inflation summary; key input for Nov and Dec FOMC decisions.
Oct 27–28, 2026	FOMC Meeting & Rate Decision (Oct 27–28, 2026) – Rate decision Oct 28 at 2 PM ET No updated rate-path forecast at this meeting; decision driven by September jobs and inflation data. Market consensus: hold.
Oct 29, 2026	U.S. Q3 2026 GDP Advance Estimate Consensus: +1.8% annualized – First read on Q3 growth; consensus +1.8% annualized after a soft Q2. A miss would reinforce rate cut case.

Marz Capital – The Brief · Sourced from Yahoo Finance, BLS, StatsCan, FRED, CNBC, Reuters & web search · Note: some 1M/YTD/1Y market columns show n/a where data was unavailable at time of research · Treasury "ATH" reflects the past 20 years, not full history, since older-regime peaks (e.g. ~15% in 1981) aren't a meaningful comparison to today

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