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The Brief

Monday, September 28, 2026

“Live within your income and save so that you can invest. Learn what you need to learn.”– Charlie Munger

SUMMARY

Technology and AI stocks rise even as Treasury yields hit a 19-year high, echoing last week's Meta and Microsoft resilience.

10-year Treasury yield climbs 7bps to 5.18% as sticky inflation and heavy bond issuance keep pressuring rates.

VIX jumps nearly 10% as stock futures wobble heading into jobs week.

Energy underperforms as Brent oil slides over 3% to $101, unwinding recent geopolitical risk premium.

Gold and Bitcoin both retreat as rising yields and a firmer dollar dull demand for havens.

Record foreign capital inflows into US equities help underpin the S&P 500's gain.

Financials outperform as institutional investors retake the driving seat from retail traders.

Emerging markets outpace developed peers, benefiting from the broader shift into US and global equities.

MARKET & MACRO DATA

Value 1D 1M YTD 1Y ATH
S&P 500 7,743 ▲ 0.51% ▲ 0.88% ▲ 12.90% ▲ 16.55% ▼ 0.94%
Nasdaq 27,069 ▲ 0.48% ▲ 3.59% ▲ 16.50% ▲ 20.39% ▼ 0.81%
Russell 2000 2,838 ▲ 0.07% ▼ 5.60% ▲ 13.13% ▲ 16.56% ▼ 7.56%
EM (EEM) $68 ▲ 1.09% ▲ 1.21% ▲ 20.87% ▲ 28.97% ▼ 5.02%
Financials (XLF) $55 ▲ 0.57% ▼ 5.87% ▼ 0.16% ▲ 1.82% ▼ 6.42%
Energy (XLE) $62 ▼ 0.89% ▼ 0.62% ▲ 35.90% ▲ 34.88% ▼ 31.78%
Technology (XLK) $196 ▲ 0.80% ▲ 7.35% ▲ 36.02% ▲ 40.78% ▼ 9.74%
AI ETF (SMH) $607 ▲ 1.01% ▲ 9.14% ▲ 62.49% ▲ 88.48% ▼ 9.72%
Cons Disc (XLY) $111 ▲ 0.22% ▼ 5.63% ▼ 6.58% ▼ 7.76% ▼ 40.02%
Gold ($/oz) $4,188 ▼ 3.08% ▼ 7.54% ▼ 3.26% ▲ 8.64% ▼ 25.02%
Bitcoin (USD) $82,991 ▼ 1.74% ▲ 6.06% ▼ 7.73% ▼ 25.98% ▼ 34.24%
Copper ($/lb) $6.63 ▼ 0.94% ▲ 1.07% ▲ 17.60% ▲ 37.01% ▼ 2.89%
Brent Oil ($/bbl) $101 ▼ 3.20% ▲ 13.07% ▲ 66.22% ▲ 48.57% ▼ 31.51%
Nat Gas ($/MMBtu) $3.10 ▼ 2.91% ▲ 7.44% ▼ 14.23% ▼ 5.02% ▼ 80.34%
VIX (Volatility) 16.34 ▲ 9.89% ▲ 13.24% ▲ 12.61% ▲ 1.36% ▼ 81.75%
3-Month T-Bill 4.24% ▲ 5bps ▲ 38bps ▲ 59bps ▲ 22bps ▼ 139bps
2Y Treasury 4.87% ▲ 2bps ▲ 70bps ▲ 140bps ▲ 130bps ▼ 32bps
10Y Treasury 5.18% ▲ 7bps ▲ 54bps ▲ 99bps ▲ 102bps ▼ 8bps
US HY Spread 2.80% ▲ 7bps ▲ 10bps ▼ 3bps ▲ 10bps ▼ 181bps
US Dollar Index (DXY) 101.13 ▲ 0.16% ▲ 1.44% ▲ 2.76% ▲ 3.29% ▼ 38.60%
US Unemployment 4.10% Aug 2026 · Next release: October 2, 2026
US CPI (YoY) 3.40% Aug 2026 · BLS CPI-U all items NSA
SOFR 3M (90d avg) 3.67% Rate only · n/a across change periods

ECONOMICS, MARKETS & BUSINESS

TECH & AI

WORLD & POLITICS

DEALS

EARNINGS RELEASES (next 15 days)

DateCompanyEPS ForecastWatch
Sep 29 Carnival Corporation CCL $1.36 Travel demand and occupancy and booking trends
Sep 30 Micron Technology MU $31.24 Chip demand, supply bottlenecks, and AI infrastructure spending
Sep 30 Jabil JBL $3.86 Contract manufacturing volumes and customer concentration
Oct 1 Accenture ACN $3.19 Enterprise IT spending and project pipelines
Oct 1 Nike NKE $0.44 Consumer discretionary spending and brand pricing power
Oct 1 McCormick & Company MKC $0.75 Input costs and pricing power
Oct 6 Constellation Brands STZ $3.62 Consumer spending on premium beverages
Oct 8 Pepsico PEP $2.30 Volume trends and input cost inflation
Oct 9 Delta Air Lines DAL $2.03 Ticket demand and fuel costs

WEEK AHEAD

DateEvent
Oct 2, 2026 U.S. Jobs Report (September)
Q3 labour market health check; impacts Oct FOMC hold/cut decision.

ON THE RADAR

DateEvent
Oct 14, 2026 U.S. CPI (September)
Q3 inflation summary; key input for Nov and Dec FOMC decisions.
Oct 27–28, 2026 FOMC Meeting & Rate Decision (Oct 27–28, 2026) – Rate decision Oct 28 at 2 PM ET
No updated rate-path forecast at this meeting; decision driven by September jobs and inflation data. Market consensus: hold.
Oct 29, 2026 U.S. Q3 2026 GDP Advance Estimate
Consensus: +1.8% annualized – First read on Q3 growth; consensus +1.8% annualized after a soft Q2. A miss would reinforce rate cut case.

Marz Capital – The Brief · Sourced from Yahoo Finance, BLS, StatsCan, FRED, CNBC, Reuters & web search · Note: some 1M/YTD/1Y market columns show n/a where data was unavailable at time of research · Treasury "ATH" reflects the past 20 years, not full history, since older-regime peaks (e.g. ~15% in 1981) aren't a meaningful comparison to today

Marz Capital, 475 Kent Ave, Brooklyn, NY 11249

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