The Brief

Wednesday, September 30, 2026

“Risk means more things can happen than will happen.”– Howard Marks

SUMMARY

Brent crude sinks 4.84% to $98, falling below $100 as energy fears ease.

Energy sector drops nearly 1% as oil's slide drags on the group.

Treasury yields push higher across the curve, with the 10Y up 7bps and 2Y up 11bps, despite the drop in oil.

Financials slip as high-yield spreads widen 9bps alongside the rise in short-term rates.

Russell 2000 underperforms the broader market, more exposed to higher-for-longer rates.

AI ETF SMH jumps over 1%, extending the AI rebound even as broader Technology stays flat.

Consumer Discretionary barely rises, still pressured by 3.40% inflation squeezing household budgets.

Gold climbs to $4,216 even as Treasury yields rise, a sign safe-haven demand persists.

MARKET & MACRO DATA

	Value	1D	1M	YTD	1Y	ATH
S&P 500	7,671	▼ 0.17%	▼ 0.20%	▲ 11.84%	▲ 14.69%	▼ 1.87%
Nasdaq	26,798	▼ 0.09%	▲ 1.62%	▲ 15.33%	▲ 18.26%	▼ 1.80%
Russell 2000	2,808	▼ 0.35%	▼ 5.02%	▲ 11.95%	▲ 15.24%	▼ 8.53%
EM (EEM)	$67	▲ 0.30%	▲ 0.57%	▲ 19.84%	▲ 26.22%	▼ 5.83%
Financials (XLF)	$54	▼ 0.33%	▼ 6.41%	▼ 1.67%	▲ 0.26%	▼ 7.83%
Energy (XLE)	$62	▼ 0.90%	▼ 3.78%	▲ 34.81%	▲ 37.77%	▼ 32.33%
Technology (XLK)	$195	▼ 0.02%	▲ 4.29%	▲ 34.79%	▲ 38.01%	▼ 10.55%
AI ETF (SMH)	$607	▲ 1.15%	▲ 9.03%	▲ 62.58%	▲ 85.96%	▼ 9.66%
Cons Disc (XLY)	$109	▲ 0.14%	▼ 6.38%	▼ 7.77%	▼ 8.91%	▼ 40.79%
Gold ($/oz)	$4,216	▲ 0.87%	▼ 5.92%	▼ 2.62%	▲ 8.86%	▼ 24.52%
Bitcoin (USD)	$83,695	▲ 0.09%	▲ 6.55%	▼ 6.95%	▼ 26.62%	▼ 33.68%
Copper ($/lb)	$6.64	▲ 1.44%	▲ 0.67%	▲ 17.69%	▲ 38.14%	▼ 2.82%
Brent Oil ($/bbl)	$98	▼ 4.84%	▲ 7.88%	▲ 60.69%	▲ 45.66%	▼ 33.79%
Nat Gas ($/MMBtu)	$3.04	▲ 1.06%	▲ 3.68%	▼ 15.89%	▼ 7.87%	▼ 80.72%
VIX (Volatility)	16.08	▲ 0.25%	▲ 7.77%	▲ 10.82%	▼ 1.23%	▼ 82.04%
3-Month T-Bill	4.28%	▲ 4bps	▲ 38bps	▲ 63bps	▲ 24bps	▼ 135bps
2Y Treasury	4.92%	▲ 11bps	▲ 58bps	▲ 145bps	▲ 129bps	▼ 27bps
10Y Treasury	5.24%	▲ 7bps	▲ 51bps	▲ 105bps	▲ 109bps	▼ 2bps
US HY Spread	3.02%	▲ 9bps	▲ 42bps	▲ 19bps	▲ 28bps	▼ 159bps
US Dollar Index (DXY)	101.19	▼ 0.18%	▲ 1.77%	▲ 2.81%	▲ 3.50%	▼ 38.57%
US Unemployment	4.10%	Aug 2026 · Next release: October 2, 2026
US CPI (YoY)	3.40%	Aug 2026 · BLS CPI-U all items NSA
SOFR 3M (90d avg)	3.68%	Rate only · n/a across change periods

ECONOMICS, MARKETS & BUSINESS

Stock Futures Rise as Oil Prices, Rate Hike Bets Ease – Market sentiment strengthened in early European trade, with investors checking expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes and bracing for inflation data. Ask Claude ›
Stock Market Today: Treasury Yields Slip, Giving Investors Some Reprieve – Stock futures point to more positive mood Ask Claude ›
AI-supercharged stock market is world’s worst in third quarter – Kospi tumbled almost a fifth in three months to September after July sell-off but is still up 60% this year Ask Claude ›
Smart ring start-up Oura delays IPO – Finnish-American company had been seeking a valuation of as much as $14bn Ask Claude ›
Long-Term Treasury Yields Push Higher Despite Decline in Oil Prices Ask Claude ›
Inside Man: How Chinese spies used lies, love and betrayal to target the Federal Reserve – A CNBC investigation shows how former Fed advisor John Rogers became entangled with a man U.S. officials identify as a Chinese intelligence operative. Ask Claude ›
Japan Pauses Forex Intervention as Yen Strengthens – Japan didn’t step into foreign-exchange markets in the past month, as repeated verbal warnings and historic intervention during the summer helped the yen regain some strength. Ask Claude ›
Household energy bills forecast to see biggest rise in four years – A typical household faces an annual gas and electricity bill of £1,999 from January, based on a key forecast. Ask Claude ›
Bond markets rebound after sell-off – US long-term borrowing costs hit highest level in almost 25 years on Tuesday Ask Claude ›
Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief; Tehran receives U.S. proposal following Qatar talks – U.S. President Donald Trump has denied reports that he had offered sanctions relief to Iran in exchange for concessions from Tehran on its nuclear program. Ask Claude ›
Boeing rises 3% after securing U.S. navy deal to develop next-generation fighter jet – The Department of War and the U.S. Navy said Tuesday that it's chosen aircraft manufacturer Boeing to develop its next generation of fighter jets. Ask Claude ›
Gold Futures Rise as U.S. Treasury Yields Retreat – Gold prices rose as Treasury yields retreated from multiyear highs and traders scaled back expectations for another Fed rate hike. Ask Claude ›

TECH & AI

Three takeaways from Trump's 'Super Intelligence' summit – The meeting at the White House came as some tech bosses and experts have called for tighter rules around AI. Ask Claude ›
Regulating AI 'not the right place to start' says Bailey – AI needs "rigorous" testing and safeguards to contain risk, Andrew Bailey says. Ask Claude ›
Apple Pay finally launches in India after years on the sidelines – Some of India's largest banks are holding off on supporting Apple Pay initially. Ask Claude ›
America.gov gets really weird when you ask it about Minecraft, but it’s not a glitch – For the sake of national security, it's a relief to learn that America.gov is not hallucinating to the point that it's penning lengthy poetry. Ask Claude ›
Chinese AI tool told researchers how to make bioweapons – Mindgard said it discovered in July that Kimi models K2.6 and K3 Swarm could evade developer's safety limits. Ask Claude ›
The start-ups hoping to return battery making to the US – Batteries based on sodium-ion technology could be made in the US with locally sourced materials. Ask Claude ›
The internet is convinced Elon Musk’s xAI trolled OpenAI’s ‘Dots’ launch – Before OpenAI launched its new AI agent, Dots, on Tuesday, Elon Musk's xAI had already acquired the domain name "dot.com," which now redirects to the Grok chatbot download page. Ask Claude ›
Your car and its mobile app are probably handing over all kinds of data to tech companies – Researchers at Northeastern University found vehicles and their companion apps regularly shared detailed data with some of the largest tech companies. Ask Claude ›

WORLD & POLITICS

South Korea calls for apology from North Korea after mine injures three soldiers – Blast during search operation near border fuels political tensions amid attempts to revive diplomatic channels South Korea has demanded an apology from North Korea over a landmine blast that injured t Ask Claude ›
Flight to Israel Makes Emergency Landing in Saudi Arabia After Steep Dive – The Boeing 737 aircraft went through an extreme descent and rise in flight, tracking data showed. FlyDubai said all passengers were safe. Ask Claude ›
Spain announces ban on evictions after protests over 87-year-old woman's removal from flat – The ban is part of a number of proposals that must be approved in parliament within 30 days. Ask Claude ›
Settler Attack Forces Israeli Troops to Retreat in West Bank Operation – Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has come under growing pressure to rein in violence in the occupied territory. Ask Claude ›
AI tool that copied actor’s ‘lustrous’ voice violated his rights, says Tokyo court – Kenjiro Tsuda wins case against TikTok account in landmark verdict to protect publicity rights A court in Japan has ruled that the human voice has legal protection after a landmark case involving a we Ask Claude ›
At least Burnham doesn’t pretend to care about growth – Unlike his predecessors, Britain’s prime minister is a fairly honest stagnation-ist Ask Claude ›
Submit a question: What’s next for the global economy? – Economics leader writer Tej Parikh and European economics commentator Martin Sandbu will answer reader questions in a live Q&A on Thursday October 1 at 1pm Ask Claude ›
An economist’s – and poet’s – guide to Zürich – Anna Seidel on where to soak up the city’s banks, bookstores and radical creativity Ask Claude ›

DEALS

Amex GBT, the B2B travel management platform, was taken private by **Long Lake Management** in an all-cash transaction valuing the company at approximately $6.3 billion, with shareholders receiving $9.50 per share in cash, a 65.1% premium to the 30-day volume-weighted average price before the deal was announced. Source ›
John Fabick Tractor Company, a more than 100-year-old Cat dealer serving Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan's Upper Peninsula, agreed to be acquired by **Caterpillar Inc.**, which plans to close the deal within 30 days pending regulatory approval. Source ›
Kahua, an Alpharetta, Georgia-based AI enterprise construction platform, secured a minority growth investment from **Bain Capital's Tech Opportunities fund** of around $250 million that values the company above $1 billion, a tenfold jump from its roughly $100 million valuation in 2019, making Bain its largest outside investor. Source ›
SoundThinking, the Nasdaq-listed public safety technology company behind ShotSpotter, agreed to be taken private by **Transom Capital Group** in a tender offer worth up to approximately $159 million, with shareholders getting $8.00 per share in cash plus a contingent value right worth up to $3.00 more tied to revenue milestones. Source ›
Serán Bioscience, a Bend, Oregon-based contract development and manufacturing organization specializing in spray-dried drug formulations, landed an undisclosed growth investment led by **Biospring Partners** alongside existing backers Vivo Capital and Bain Capital Life Sciences to fund a new commercial-scale manufacturing facility. Source ›
Quartermaster, an Arlington, Virginia-based maritime intelligence and decentralized ocean-sensing startup, raised $140 million in a Series B round led by **Insight Partners** with participation from Overmatch Ventures, First Round Capital and Stifel. Source ›
Efficient Computer, a Pittsburgh-based startup building energy-efficient processors, raised more than $97 million in a Series B funding round. Source ›
Link Cell Therapies, a South San Francisco-based oncology cell therapy company, raised $30 million to upsize its Series A round to a total of $90 million. Source ›

EARNINGS RELEASES (next 15 days)

Date	Company	EPS Forecast	Watch
Sep 30	Micron Technology MU	$31.41	Chip demand, supply bottlenecks, and AI infrastructure spending
Sep 30	Jabil JBL	$3.88	Contract manufacturing volumes and customer concentration
Oct 1	Accenture ACN	$3.19	Enterprise IT spending and project pipelines
Oct 1	Nike NKE	$0.43	Consumer discretionary spending and brand pricing power
Oct 1	McCormick & Company MKC	$0.75	Input costs and pricing power
Oct 6	Constellation Brands STZ	$3.62	Consumer spending on premium beverages
Oct 8	Pepsico PEP	$2.29	Volume trends and input cost inflation
Oct 9	Delta Air Lines DAL	$1.96	Ticket demand and fuel costs
Oct 13	J P Morgan Chase JPM	$5.88	Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 13	Johnson & Johnson JNJ	$2.90	Drug pipeline progress and pricing and patent pressure
Oct 13	UnitedHealth Group UNH	$4.12	Medical cost trends and membership growth
Oct 13	Goldman Sachs Group GS	$15.18	Deal volumes and trading activity
Oct 13	Citigroup C	$2.70	Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 13	BlackRock BLK	$14.19	Assets under management and market-driven fee revenue
Oct 14	Bank of America BAC	$1.16	Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 14	Morgan Stanley MS	$3.06	Deal volumes and trading activity
Oct 14	Wells Fargo WFC	$1.84	Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 14	Fastenal FAST	$0.34	Industrial demand and distribution volumes
Oct 14	State Street STT	$3.60	Assets under management and market-driven fee revenue

WEEK AHEAD

Date	Event
Oct 2, 2026	U.S. Jobs Report (September) Q3 labour market health check; impacts Oct FOMC hold/cut decision.

ON THE RADAR

Date	Event
Oct 14, 2026	U.S. CPI (September) Q3 inflation summary; key input for Nov and Dec FOMC decisions.
Oct 27–28, 2026	FOMC Meeting & Rate Decision (Oct 27–28, 2026) – Rate decision Oct 28 at 2 PM ET No updated rate-path forecast at this meeting; decision driven by September jobs and inflation data. Market consensus: hold.
Oct 29, 2026	U.S. Q3 2026 GDP Advance Estimate Consensus: +1.8% annualized – First read on Q3 growth; consensus +1.8% annualized after a soft Q2. A miss would reinforce rate cut case.

Marz Capital – The Brief · Sourced from Yahoo Finance, BLS, StatsCan, FRED, CNBC, Reuters & web search · Note: some 1M/YTD/1Y market columns show n/a where data was unavailable at time of research · Treasury "ATH" reflects the past 20 years, not full history, since older-regime peaks (e.g. ~15% in 1981) aren't a meaningful comparison to today

Marz Capital, 475 Kent Ave, Brooklyn, NY 11249

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