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The Brief

Friday, October 2, 2026

“Never buy at the bottom, and always sell too soon.”– Jesse Livermore

SUMMARY

Energy stocks jump even as Brent oil slides below $100 on reports of EU diesel and crude stock releases.

Semiconductors and tech rally as Samsung's memory chip price hikes lift chipmakers broadly.

Treasury market steadies after this week's sharp sell-off, though the 10-year yield still edges up 3bps to its highest since 2002.

VIX falls as volatility eases alongside the bond market stabilization.

Consumer Discretionary stays roughly flat as Nike's 10% plunge on weak revenue offsets Mattel's takeover-driven gains.

Euro holds firm against the dollar after eurozone inflation accelerates to 3.8%, its highest in three years.

Gold continues its grind higher, holding above $4,200.

Bitcoin rises nearly 2% with no clear catalyst in today's headlines.

MARKET & MACRO DATA

Value 1D 1M YTD 1Y ATH
S&P 500 7,666 ▲ 0.19% ▲ 0.46% ▲ 11.78% ▲ 14.16% ▼ 1.92%
Nasdaq 26,872 ▲ 0.04% ▲ 2.96% ▲ 15.65% ▲ 17.63% ▼ 1.53%
Russell 2000 2,807 ▲ 0.35% ▼ 3.89% ▲ 11.90% ▲ 14.16% ▼ 8.57%
EM (EEM) $67 ▲ 0.03% ▲ 0.06% ▲ 18.79% ▲ 23.56% ▼ 6.65%
Financials (XLF) $53 ▲ 0.11% ▼ 6.54% ▼ 2.68% ▲ 0.21% ▼ 8.77%
Energy (XLE) $63 ▲ 1.95% ▼ 3.20% ▲ 37.35% ▲ 41.79% ▼ 31.05%
Technology (XLK) $198 ▲ 1.05% ▲ 7.72% ▲ 37.08% ▲ 38.25% ▼ 9.03%
AI ETF (SMH) $618 ▲ 1.45% ▲ 13.31% ▲ 65.50% ▲ 82.65% ▼ 8.04%
Cons Disc (XLY) $109 ▼ 0.03% ▼ 5.04% ▼ 8.06% ▼ 9.10% ▼ 40.97%
Gold ($/oz) $4,212 ▲ 0.22% ▼ 4.60% ▼ 2.73% ▲ 8.88% ▼ 24.61%
Bitcoin (USD) $86,451 ▲ 1.88% ▲ 11.84% ▼ 3.88% ▼ 28.36% ▼ 31.50%
Copper ($/lb) $6.56 ▲ 1.24% ▲ 0.95% ▲ 16.36% ▲ 33.98% ▼ 3.92%
Brent Oil ($/bbl) $100 ▼ 2.35% ▲ 4.48% ▲ 64.46% ▲ 55.84% ▼ 32.23%
Nat Gas ($/MMBtu) $2.92 ▼ 1.42% ▼ 1.05% ▼ 19.15% ▼ 15.02% ▼ 81.46%
VIX (Volatility) 15.97 ▼ 2.56% ▲ 5.07% ▲ 10.06% ▼ 3.97% ▼ 82.16%
3-Month T-Bill 4.20% ▼ 5bps ▲ 29bps ▲ 55bps ▲ 18bps ▼ 143bps
2Y Treasury 4.88% ▼ 1bps ▲ 54bps ▲ 141bps ▲ 128bps ▼ 31bps
10Y Treasury 5.29% ▲ 3bps ▲ 54bps ▲ 110bps ▲ 113bps ▲ 0bps
US HY Spread 3.12% ▲ 4bps ▲ 49bps ▲ 29bps ▲ 32bps ▼ 149bps
US Dollar Index (DXY) 102.03 ▼ 0.07% ▲ 2.48% ▲ 3.66% ▲ 4.27% ▼ 38.06%
US Unemployment 4.10% Aug 2026 · Next release: October 2, 2026
US CPI (YoY) 3.40% Aug 2026 · BLS CPI-U all items NSA
SOFR 3M (90d avg) 3.68% Rate only · n/a across change periods

ECONOMICS, MARKETS & BUSINESS

TECH & AI

WORLD & POLITICS

DEALS

EARNINGS RELEASES (next 15 days)

DateCompanyEPS ForecastWatch
Oct 6 Constellation Brands STZ $3.62 Consumer spending on premium beverages
Oct 8 Pepsico PEP $2.29 Volume trends and input cost inflation
Oct 9 Delta Air Lines DAL $1.96 Ticket demand and fuel costs
Oct 13 J P Morgan Chase JPM $5.88 Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 13 Johnson & Johnson JNJ $2.90 Drug pipeline progress and pricing and patent pressure
Oct 13 UnitedHealth Group UNH $4.12 Medical cost trends and membership growth
Oct 13 Goldman Sachs Group GS $14.59 Deal volumes and trading activity
Oct 13 Citigroup C $2.70 Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 14 Bank of America BAC $1.16 Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 14 Morgan Stanley MS $3.01 Deal volumes and trading activity
Oct 14 Wells Fargo WFC $1.84 Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 14 BlackRock BLK $14.19 Assets under management and market-driven fee revenue
Oct 14 Fastenal FAST $0.34 Industrial demand and distribution volumes
Oct 14 State Street STT $3.62 Assets under management and market-driven fee revenue
Oct 15 Charles Schwab SCHW $1.67 Deal volumes and trading activity
Oct 15 Prologis PLD $1.58 Warehouse demand and e-commerce-driven leasing
Oct 15 Bank Of New York Mellon BNY $2.25 Assets under management and market-driven fee revenue
Oct 15 U.S. Bancorp USB $1.33 Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 15 PNC Financial Services Group PNC $4.97 Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 15 Marsh MRSH $1.96 Premium growth and commission trends
Oct 15 Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $0.67 Deal volumes and trading activity
Oct 15 Snap-On SNA $4.91 Capex cycles and order backlogs
Oct 16 Travelers Companies TRV $6.77 Claims trends (including weather losses) and premium pricing
Oct 16 Truist Financial TFC $1.12 Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 16 M&T Bank MTB $5 Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact
Oct 16 Citizens Financial Group CFG $1.38 Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact
Oct 16 Regions Financial RF $0.67 Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact

WEEK AHEAD

DateEvent
Oct 2, 2026 U.S. Jobs Report (September)
Q3 labour market health check; impacts Oct FOMC hold/cut decision.

ON THE RADAR

DateEvent
Oct 14, 2026 U.S. CPI (September)
Q3 inflation summary; key input for Nov and Dec FOMC decisions.
Oct 27–28, 2026 FOMC Meeting & Rate Decision (Oct 27–28, 2026) – Rate decision Oct 28 at 2 PM ET
No updated rate-path forecast at this meeting; decision driven by September jobs and inflation data. Market consensus: hold.
Oct 29, 2026 U.S. Q3 2026 GDP Advance Estimate
Consensus: +1.8% annualized – First read on Q3 growth; consensus +1.8% annualized after a soft Q2. A miss would reinforce rate cut case.

Marz Capital – The Brief · Sourced from Yahoo Finance, BLS, StatsCan, FRED, CNBC, Reuters & web search · Note: some 1M/YTD/1Y market columns show n/a where data was unavailable at time of research · Treasury "ATH" reflects the past 20 years, not full history, since older-regime peaks (e.g. ~15% in 1981) aren't a meaningful comparison to today

Marz Capital, 475 Kent Ave, Brooklyn, NY 11249

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