Monday, October 5, 2026
“The big money is not in the buying and the selling, but in the waiting.”– Charlie Munger
Technology and semiconductors rally again, with SMH up over 2% as AI enthusiasm continues to override rate sensitivity.
2Y and 10Y Treasury yields fall even as French and Spanish bond yields rise on fiscal and political uncertainty.
Dollar strengthens as investors seek safety, with the euro dragged down by France's fiscal woes.
Financials stay flat, still haunted by the ghosts of 2023 despite stronger balance sheets heading into a new rate cycle.
VIX jumps over 5% even as the S&P and Nasdaq rise, echoing JPMorgan's warning that higher yields are weighing on sentiment.
High yield spreads widen 12bps, showing credit caution beneath the broader equity rally.
Gold extends gains, holding safe-haven bid even against a stronger dollar.
EM equities outperform, up 1.29%, as the broader risk-on tone lifts emerging markets alongside tech.
| Value | 1D | 1M | YTD | 1Y | ATH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,723 | ▲ 0.73% | ▲ 0.73% | ▲ 12.60% | ▲ 14.99% | ▼ 1.20% |
| Nasdaq | 27,191 | ▲ 1.19% | ▲ 3.71% | ▲ 17.02% | ▲ 19.36% | ▼ 0.60% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,833 | ▲ 0.94% | ▼ 4.07% | ▲ 12.94% | ▲ 14.41% | ▼ 7.71% |
| EM (EEM) | $68 | ▲ 1.29% | ▲ 0.77% | ▲ 20.32% | ▲ 24.78% | ▼ 5.45% |
| Financials (XLF) | $53 | ▲ 0.06% | ▼ 7.23% | ▼ 2.62% | ▼ 0.43% | ▼ 8.72% |
| Energy (XLE) | $63 | ▲ 0.19% | ▼ 3.50% | ▲ 37.61% | ▲ 41.31% | ▼ 30.92% |
| Technology (XLK) | $200 | ▲ 1.01% | ▲ 8.83% | ▲ 38.47% | ▲ 40.36% | ▼ 8.11% |
| AI ETF (SMH) | $631 | ▲ 2.07% | ▲ 14.55% | ▲ 68.93% | ▲ 87.30% | ▼ 6.14% |
| Cons Disc (XLY) | $110 | ▲ 1.13% | ▼ 4.20% | ▼ 7.02% | ▼ 7.47% | ▼ 40.31% |
| Gold ($/oz) | $4,189 | ▲ 0.65% | ▼ 6.42% | ▼ 3.24% | ▲ 5.36% | ▼ 25.01% |
| Bitcoin (USD) | $85,929 | ▼ 0.64% | ▲ 7.65% | ▼ 4.47% | ▼ 30.43% | ▼ 31.91% |
| Copper ($/lb) | $6.61 | ▲ 1.82% | ▲ 0.20% | ▲ 17.20% | ▲ 32.54% | ▼ 3.22% |
| Brent Oil ($/bbl) | $103 | ▲ 0.37% | ▲ 6.60% | ▲ 68.94% | ▲ 56.76% | ▼ 30.39% |
| Nat Gas ($/MMBtu) | $3.03 | ▼ 0.07% | ▲ 1.95% | ▼ 16.17% | ▼ 9.65% | ▼ 80.78% |
| VIX (Volatility) | 16.16 | ▲ 5.55% | ▲ 11.22% | ▲ 11.37% | ▼ 1.28% | ▼ 81.95% |
| 3-Month T-Bill | 4.17% | ▼ 3bps | ▲ 25bps | ▲ 52bps | ▲ 16bps | ▼ 146bps |
| 2Y Treasury | 4.78% | ▼ 10bps | ▲ 39bps | ▲ 131bps | ▲ 123bps | ▼ 41bps |
| 10Y Treasury | 5.24% | ▼ 5bps | ▲ 45bps | ▲ 105bps | ▲ 112bps | ▼ 5bps |
| US HY Spread | 3.24% | ▲ 12bps | ▲ 59bps | ▲ 41bps | ▲ 43bps | ▼ 137bps |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 102.23 | ▲ 0.29% | ▲ 3.09% | ▲ 3.87% | ▲ 4.20% | ▼ 37.94% |
| US Unemployment | 4.20% | Sep 2026 · Next release: November 6, 2026 | ||||
| US CPI (YoY) | 3.40% | Aug 2026 · BLS CPI-U all items NSA | ||||
| SOFR 3M (90d avg) | 3.69% | Rate only · n/a across change periods | ||||
| Date | Company | EPS Forecast | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6 | Constellation Brands STZ | $3.62 | Consumer spending on premium beverages |
| Oct 8 | Pepsico PEP | $2.29 | Volume trends and input cost inflation |
| Oct 9 | Delta Air Lines DAL | $1.96 | Ticket demand and fuel costs |
| Oct 13 | J P Morgan Chase JPM | $5.88 | Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth |
| Oct 13 | Johnson & Johnson JNJ | $2.90 | Drug pipeline progress and pricing and patent pressure |
| Oct 13 | UnitedHealth Group UNH | $4.12 | Medical cost trends and membership growth |
| Oct 13 | Goldman Sachs Group GS | $14.05 | Deal volumes and trading activity |
| Oct 13 | Citigroup C | $2.66 | Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth |
| Oct 14 | Bank of America BAC | $1.13 | Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth |
| Oct 14 | Morgan Stanley MS | $2.97 | Deal volumes and trading activity |
| Oct 14 | Wells Fargo WFC | $1.85 | Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth |
| Oct 14 | BlackRock BLK | $14.19 | Assets under management and market-driven fee revenue |
| Oct 14 | Fastenal FAST | $0.34 | Industrial demand and distribution volumes |
| Oct 14 | State Street STT | $3.62 | Assets under management and market-driven fee revenue |
| Oct 15 | Charles Schwab SCHW | $1.67 | Deal volumes and trading activity |
| Oct 15 | Prologis PLD | $1.58 | Warehouse demand and e-commerce-driven leasing |
| Oct 15 | Bank Of New York Mellon BNY | $2.26 | Assets under management and market-driven fee revenue |
| Oct 15 | U.S. Bancorp USB | $1.32 | Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth |
| Oct 15 | PNC Financial Services Group PNC | $4.97 | Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth |
| Oct 15 | Marsh MRSH | $1.96 | Premium growth and commission trends |
| Oct 15 | Interactive Brokers Group IBKR | $0.66 | Deal volumes and trading activity |
| Oct 15 | J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT | $2 | Freight volumes and fuel surcharges |
| Oct 15 | Snap-On SNA | $4.91 | Capex cycles and order backlogs |
| Oct 16 | Travelers Companies TRV | $6.80 | Claims trends (including weather losses) and premium pricing |
| Oct 16 | Truist Financial TFC | $1.12 | Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth |
| Oct 16 | M&T Bank MTB | $4.99 | Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact |
| Oct 16 | Citizens Financial Group CFG | $1.38 | Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact |
| Oct 16 | Regions Financial RF | $0.67 | Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact |
| Oct 19 | Fifth Third Bancorp FITB | $1.09 | Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact |
| Oct 19 | Steel Dynamics STLD | $5.41 | Steel prices and industrial and construction demand |
| Oct 19 | W.R. Berkley WRB | $1.13 | Claims trends (including weather losses) and premium pricing |
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | U.S. CPI (September) Q3 inflation summary; key input for Nov and Dec FOMC decisions. |
| Oct 27–28, 2026 | FOMC Meeting & Rate Decision (Oct 27–28, 2026) – Rate decision Oct 28 at 2 PM ET No updated rate-path forecast at this meeting; decision driven by September jobs and inflation data. Market consensus: hold. |
| Oct 29, 2026 | U.S. Q3 2026 GDP Advance Estimate Consensus: +1.8% annualized – First read on Q3 growth; consensus +1.8% annualized after a soft Q2. A miss would reinforce rate cut case. |
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Marz Capital – The Brief · Sourced from Yahoo Finance, BLS, StatsCan, FRED, CNBC, Reuters & web search · Note: some 1M/YTD/1Y market columns show n/a where data was unavailable at time of research · Treasury "ATH" reflects the past 20 years, not full history, since older-regime peaks (e.g. ~15% in 1981) aren't a meaningful comparison to today
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