Wednesday, October 7, 2026
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”– Milton Friedman
Treasury yields climb further as the 30-year hits a fresh 24-year high, extending the global bond selloff.
French bonds underperform again after the IMF chief warns Paris to 'get its house in order' on debt.
Bond volatility (MOVE) falls even as yields rise, suggesting investors see the selloff as orderly, not panicked.
Oil and natural gas push higher after Houthi strikes on Saudi airports and a stalled Iran nuclear standoff revive supply fears.
Energy (XLE) rises in step with crude's advance.
Consumer Discretionary outperforms, lifted by Paramount's $110bn takeover of Warner Bros.
Technology gains even as chipmakers (SMH) slip, a narrower AI rally than the record headlines suggest.
Small caps and EM underperform as the dollar strengthens and rates climb.
Gold and Bitcoin both fall as a stronger dollar and higher yields pressure non-yielding assets.
VIX jumps as the renewed bond-market selloff spills into equity volatility.
| Value | 1D | 1M | YTD | 1Y | ATH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,819 | ▲ 0.58% | ▲ 1.30% | ▲ 14.00% | ▲ 16.45% | ▼ 0.33% |
| Nasdaq | 27,600 | ▲ 0.45% | ▲ 4.12% | ▲ 18.78% | ▲ 21.11% | ▼ 0.44% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,830 | ▼ 0.59% | ▼ 4.88% | ▲ 12.84% | ▲ 15.13% | ▼ 7.80% |
| EM (EEM) | $68 | ▼ 0.67% | ▼ 0.63% | ▲ 21.39% | ▲ 26.29% | ▼ 4.61% |
| Financials (XLF) | $54 | ▲ 0.24% | ▼ 7.04% | ▼ 1.67% | ▲ 0.45% | ▼ 7.83% |
| Energy (XLE) | $64 | ▲ 0.47% | ▼ 0.48% | ▲ 39.65% | ▲ 42.47% | ▼ 29.90% |
| Technology (XLK) | $202 | ▲ 0.53% | ▲ 7.86% | ▲ 39.99% | ▲ 41.42% | ▼ 7.10% |
| AI ETF (SMH) | $633 | ▼ 0.22% | ▲ 11.55% | ▲ 69.43% | ▲ 87.66% | ▼ 5.85% |
| Cons Disc (XLY) | $112 | ▲ 1.18% | ▼ 2.78% | ▼ 5.60% | ▼ 5.20% | ▼ 39.39% |
| Gold ($/oz) | $4,143 | ▼ 1.06% | ▼ 6.68% | ▼ 4.32% | ▲ 3.45% | ▼ 25.84% |
| Bitcoin (USD) | $83,771 | ▼ 2.09% | ▲ 5.88% | ▼ 6.86% | ▼ 31.03% | ▼ 33.62% |
| Copper ($/lb) | $6.64 | ▲ 0.72% | ▼ 1.44% | ▲ 17.77% | ▲ 31.58% | ▼ 2.75% |
| Brent Oil ($/bbl) | $102 | ▲ 1.22% | ▲ 3.97% | ▲ 67.59% | ▲ 55.55% | ▼ 30.94% |
| Nat Gas ($/MMBtu) | $3.18 | ▲ 2.22% | ▲ 9.16% | ▼ 12.02% | ▼ 9.01% | ▼ 79.83% |
| VIX (Volatility) | 15.69 | ▲ 4.53% | ▲ 2.55% | ▲ 8.13% | ▼ 8.99% | ▼ 82.48% |
| MOVE (Bond Volatility) | 105.20 | ▼ 7.39% | ▲ 43.91% | ▲ 68.70% | ▲ 39.47% | ▼ 60.24% |
| 3-Month T-Bill | 4.22% | ▲ 3bps | ▲ 31bps | ▲ 57bps | ▲ 20bps | ▼ 141bps |
| 2Y Treasury | 4.84% | ▲ 1bps | ▲ 47bps | ▲ 137bps | ▲ 124bps | ▼ 35bps |
| 10Y Treasury | 5.31% | ▲ 3bps | ▲ 53bps | ▲ 112bps | ▲ 113bps | ▲ 0bps |
| US HY Spread | 3.12% | ▲ 2bps | ▲ 44bps | ▲ 29bps | ▲ 36bps | ▼ 149bps |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 102.32 | ▲ 0.48% | ▲ 3.52% | ▲ 3.96% | ▲ 3.79% | ▼ 37.88% |
| US Unemployment | 4.20% | Sep 2026 · Next release: November 6, 2026 | ||||
| US CPI (YoY) | 3.40% | Aug 2026 · BLS CPI-U all items NSA | ||||
| SOFR 3M (90d avg) | 3.70% | Rate only · n/a across change periods | ||||
| Date | Company | EPS Forecast | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | Pepsico PEP | $2.29 | Volume trends and input cost inflation |
| Oct 9 | Delta Air Lines DAL | $1.93 | Ticket demand and fuel costs |
| Oct 13 | J P Morgan Chase JPM | $5.94 | Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth |
| Oct 13 | Johnson & Johnson JNJ | $2.90 | Drug pipeline progress and pricing and patent pressure |
| Oct 13 | UnitedHealth Group UNH | $4.12 | Medical cost trends and membership growth |
| Oct 13 | Goldman Sachs Group GS | $13.35 | Deal volumes and trading activity |
| Oct 13 | Wells Fargo WFC | $1.85 | Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth |
| Oct 13 | Citigroup C | $2.66 | Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth |
| Oct 14 | Bank of America BAC | $1.12 | Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth |
| Oct 14 | Morgan Stanley MS | $2.88 | Deal volumes and trading activity |
| Oct 14 | BlackRock BLK | $14.04 | Assets under management and market-driven fee revenue |
| Oct 14 | Fastenal FAST | $0.34 | Industrial demand and distribution volumes |
| Oct 14 | State Street STT | $3.63 | Assets under management and market-driven fee revenue |
| Oct 15 | Charles Schwab SCHW | $1.66 | Deal volumes and trading activity |
| Oct 15 | Prologis PLD | $1.58 | Warehouse demand and e-commerce-driven leasing |
| Oct 15 | Bank Of New York Mellon BNY | $2.27 | Assets under management and market-driven fee revenue |
| Oct 15 | U.S. Bancorp USB | $1.32 | Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth |
| Oct 15 | PNC Financial Services Group PNC | $4.98 | Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth |
| Oct 15 | Marsh MRSH | $1.96 | Premium growth and commission trends |
| Oct 15 | Interactive Brokers Group IBKR | $0.66 | Deal volumes and trading activity |
| Oct 15 | J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT | $2 | Freight volumes and fuel surcharges |
| Oct 15 | Snap-On SNA | $4.91 | Capex cycles and order backlogs |
| Oct 16 | Travelers Companies TRV | $6.82 | Claims trends (including weather losses) and premium pricing |
| Oct 16 | Truist Financial TFC | $1.12 | Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth |
| Oct 16 | M&T Bank MTB | $4.99 | Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact |
| Oct 16 | Citizens Financial Group CFG | $1.38 | Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact |
| Oct 16 | Regions Financial RF | $0.67 | Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact |
| Oct 19 | Fifth Third Bancorp FITB | $1.09 | Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact |
| Oct 19 | Steel Dynamics STLD | $5.41 | Steel prices and industrial and construction demand |
| Oct 19 | W.R. Berkley WRB | $1.12 | Claims trends (including weather losses) and premium pricing |
| Oct 20 | GE Aerospace GE | $2.01 | Defense budgets, aircraft delivery backlogs, and supply chain bottlenecks |
| Oct 20 | Philip Morris International PM | $2.33 | Volume declines and pricing power |
| Oct 20 | Netflix NFLX | $0.82 | Box office and streaming performance and content spending |
| Oct 20 | RTX RTX | $1.75 | Defense budgets, aircraft delivery backlogs, and supply chain bottlenecks |
| Oct 20 | Intuitive Surgical ISRG | $2.13 | Procedure volumes and hospital capital spending |
| Oct 20 | Chubb CB | $6.26 | Claims trends (including weather losses) and premium pricing |
| Oct 20 | Capital One Financial COF | $5.43 | Credit demand, delinquencies, and interest rate sensitivity |
| Oct 20 | 3M MMM | $2.41 | Order backlogs across diversified end markets |
| Oct 20 | General Motors GM | $3.50 | Vehicle demand, EV transition costs, and pricing and incentives |
| Oct 20 | Northrop Grumman NOC | $7.21 | Defense budgets, aircraft delivery backlogs, and supply chain bottlenecks |
| Oct 20 | PACCAR PCAR | $1.61 | Equipment demand tied to construction and mining activity |
| Oct 20 | MSCI MSCI | $5.02 | Trading volumes and data and subscription revenue growth |
| Oct 20 | United Airlines Holdings UAL | $3 | Ticket demand and fuel costs |
| Oct 20 | EQT EQT | $0.43 | Crude and natural gas prices |
| Oct 20 | Halliburton HAL | $0.58 | Drilling activity and oilfield spending |
| Oct 20 | Synchrony Financial SYF | $2.42 | Credit demand, delinquencies, and interest rate sensitivity |
| Oct 20 | KeyCorp KEY | $0.46 | Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact |
| Oct 20 | Omnicom Group OMC | $2.68 | Ad spending trends across channels |
| Oct 20 | Genuine Parts GPC | $2.10 | Supply chain volumes and industrial demand |
| Oct 20 | Equifax EFX | $2.21 | Client demand and project pipelines |
| Oct 20 | Hasbro HAS | $1.88 | Consumer discretionary demand for recreational goods |
| Oct 21 | Tesla TSLA | $0.24 | Vehicle demand, EV transition costs, and pricing and incentives |
| Oct 21 | Lam Research LRCX | $2.17 | Chip fab capex cycles and equipment order backlogs |
| Oct 21 | Texas Instruments TXN | $2.39 | Chip demand, supply bottlenecks, and AI infrastructure spending |
| Oct 21 | Thermo Fisher Scientific TMO | $6.40 | Research spending and biotech and pharma demand |
| Oct 21 | International Business Machines IBM | $2.89 | Enterprise IT spending and project pipelines |
| Oct 21 | Abbott Laboratories ABT | $1.43 | Procedure volumes and hospital capital spending |
| Oct 21 | AT&T T | $0.61 | Subscriber trends and network capex |
| Oct 21 | Danaher DHR | $1.96 | Research spending and biotech and pharma demand |
| Oct 21 | Progressive PGR | $4.26 | Claims trends (including weather losses) and premium pricing |
| Oct 21 | CME Group CME | $2.95 | Trading volumes and data and subscription revenue growth |
| Oct 21 | CSX CSX | $0.53 | Freight volumes and fuel costs |
| Oct 21 | Elevance Health ELV | $4.66 | Medical cost trends and membership growth |
| Oct 21 | Moody's MCO | $4.26 | Trading volumes and data and subscription revenue growth |
| Oct 21 | Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies WAB | $2.72 | Equipment demand tied to construction and mining activity |
| Oct 21 | Northern Trust NTRS | $2.86 | Assets under management and market-driven fee revenue |
| Oct 21 | Crown Castle CCI | $1.16 | Wireless carrier capex and tower leasing demand |
| Oct 21 | Southwest Airlines LUV | $0.63 | Ticket demand and fuel costs |
| Oct 21 | Packaging Corporation of America PKG | $2.94 | Packaging volumes and input costs |
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | U.S. CPI (September) Q3 inflation summary; key input for Nov and Dec FOMC decisions. |
| Oct 27–28, 2026 | FOMC Meeting & Rate Decision (Oct 27–28, 2026) – Rate decision Oct 28 at 2 PM ET No updated rate-path forecast at this meeting; decision driven by September jobs and inflation data. Market consensus: hold. |
| Oct 29, 2026 | U.S. Q3 2026 GDP Advance Estimate Consensus: +1.8% annualized – First read on Q3 growth; consensus +1.8% annualized after a soft Q2. A miss would reinforce rate cut case. |
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Marz Capital – The Brief · Sourced from Yahoo Finance, BLS, StatsCan, FRED, CNBC, Reuters & web search · Note: some 1M/YTD/1Y market columns show n/a where data was unavailable at time of research · Treasury "ATH" reflects the past 20 years, not full history, since older-regime peaks (e.g. ~15% in 1981) aren't a meaningful comparison to today
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