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The Brief

Thursday, October 8, 2026

“I do not think there is any other quality so essential to success of any kind as the quality of perseverance. It overcomes almost everything, even nature.”– John D. Rockefeller

SUMMARY

Oil jumps 5% on Iran strike fears after reports the Pentagon is prepping options before midterms.

VIX surges as the same Iran escalation risk drives a global risk-off tone.

Energy stocks lag despite the oil spike, XLE slipping even as Brent jumps.

Treasury yields ease back after touching 2002 highs, following the hawkish Fed minutes.

AI chip stocks slip as rising yields offset bumper financing news from Broadcom, Oracle and SpaceX.

Russell 2000 and EM underperform broadly as Mideast tensions sour risk appetite.

Natural gas rises as Houthi attacks and Strait of Hormuz tensions stoke supply fears.

Gold edges higher as investors seek safety amid the Iran conflict risk.

India's surprise rate hike adds to EM weakness, with Sensex and Nifty down on the move.

MARKET & MACRO DATA

Value 1D 1M YTD 1Y ATH
S&P 500 7,802 ▼ 0.22% ▲ 1.67% ▲ 13.75% ▲ 15.52% ▼ 0.54%
Nasdaq 27,539 ▼ 0.22% ▲ 4.23% ▲ 18.52% ▲ 19.51% ▼ 0.66%
Russell 2000 2,793 ▼ 1.31% ▼ 5.64% ▲ 11.36% ▲ 12.45% ▼ 9.01%
EM (EEM) $67 ▼ 1.32% ▼ 2.12% ▲ 19.79% ▲ 23.64% ▼ 5.87%
Financials (XLF) $54 ▼ 0.48% ▼ 6.20% ▼ 2.15% ▲ 0.45% ▼ 8.28%
Energy (XLE) $63 ▼ 0.61% ▼ 2.18% ▲ 38.80% ▲ 42.43% ▼ 30.33%
Technology (XLK) $201 ▼ 0.30% ▲ 7.20% ▲ 39.56% ▲ 38.56% ▼ 7.38%
AI ETF (SMH) $625 ▼ 1.18% ▲ 8.94% ▲ 67.43% ▲ 80.61% ▼ 6.97%
Cons Disc (XLY) $111 ▼ 0.32% ▼ 2.31% ▼ 5.91% ▼ 5.79% ▼ 39.59%
Gold ($/oz) $4,145 ▲ 0.11% ▼ 6.62% ▼ 4.26% ▲ 1.84% ▼ 25.79%
Bitcoin (USD) $82,390 ▼ 1.06% ▲ 5.04% ▼ 8.40% ▼ 33.21% ▼ 34.71%
Copper ($/lb) $6.63 ▲ 0.51% ▼ 1.62% ▲ 17.55% ▲ 31.39% ▼ 2.93%
Brent Oil ($/bbl) $105 ▲ 5.00% ▲ 7.44% ▲ 73.19% ▲ 58.81% ▼ 28.64%
Nat Gas ($/MMBtu) $3.26 ▲ 1.72% ▲ 11.73% ▼ 9.95% ▼ 2.25% ▼ 79.35%
VIX (Volatility) 15.95 ▲ 5.77% ▲ 1.46% ▲ 9.92% ▼ 2.15% ▼ 82.18%
MOVE (Bond Volatility) 102.56 ▼ 2.51% ▲ 34.70% ▲ 64.46% ▲ 36.98% ▼ 61.24%
3-Month T-Bill 4.21% ▼ 1bps ▲ 30bps ▲ 56bps ▲ 19bps ▼ 142bps
2Y Treasury 4.79% ▼ 5bps ▲ 42bps ▲ 132bps ▲ 119bps ▼ 40bps
10Y Treasury 5.27% ▼ 4bps ▲ 49bps ▲ 108bps ▲ 109bps ▼ 4bps
US HY Spread 3.03% ▼ 9bps ▲ 35bps ▲ 20bps ▲ 27bps ▼ 158bps
US Dollar Index (DXY) 102.39 ▲ 0.14% ▲ 3.59% ▲ 4.03% ▲ 3.58% ▼ 37.84%
US Unemployment 4.20% Sep 2026 · Next release: November 6, 2026
US CPI (YoY) 3.40% Aug 2026 · BLS CPI-U all items NSA
SOFR 3M (90d avg) 3.70% Rate only · n/a across change periods

ECONOMICS, MARKETS & BUSINESS

TECH & AI

WORLD & POLITICS

DEALS

EARNINGS RELEASES (next 15 days)

DateCompanyEPS ForecastWatch
Oct 8 Pepsico PEP $2.29 Volume trends and input cost inflation
Oct 9 Delta Air Lines DAL $1.93 Ticket demand and fuel costs
Oct 13 J P Morgan Chase JPM $5.94 Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 13 Johnson & Johnson JNJ $2.82 Drug pipeline progress and pricing and patent pressure
Oct 13 UnitedHealth Group UNH $4.12 Medical cost trends and membership growth
Oct 13 Goldman Sachs Group GS $12.90 Deal volumes and trading activity
Oct 13 Wells Fargo WFC $1.85 Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 13 Citigroup C $2.66 Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 13 Domino's Pizza DPZ $4.33 Traffic trends and input and labor cost inflation
Oct 14 Bank of America BAC $1.12 Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 14 Morgan Stanley MS $2.88 Deal volumes and trading activity
Oct 14 BlackRock BLK $14.04 Assets under management and market-driven fee revenue
Oct 14 Fastenal FAST $0.34 Industrial demand and distribution volumes
Oct 14 State Street STT $3.63 Assets under management and market-driven fee revenue
Oct 15 Charles Schwab SCHW $1.66 Deal volumes and trading activity
Oct 15 Prologis PLD $1.58 Warehouse demand and e-commerce-driven leasing
Oct 15 Bank Of New York Mellon BNY $2.27 Assets under management and market-driven fee revenue
Oct 15 U.S. Bancorp USB $1.33 Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 15 PNC Financial Services Group PNC $4.97 Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 15 Marsh MRSH $1.96 Premium growth and commission trends
Oct 15 Interactive Brokers Group IBKR $0.66 Deal volumes and trading activity
Oct 15 J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT $1.95 Freight volumes and fuel surcharges
Oct 15 Snap-On SNA $4.91 Capex cycles and order backlogs
Oct 16 Travelers Companies TRV $6.86 Claims trends (including weather losses) and premium pricing
Oct 16 Truist Financial TFC $1.17 Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 16 M&T Bank MTB $5 Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact
Oct 16 Citizens Financial Group CFG $1.38 Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact
Oct 16 Regions Financial RF $0.67 Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact
Oct 19 Fifth Third Bancorp FITB $1.09 Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact
Oct 19 Steel Dynamics STLD $5.41 Steel prices and industrial and construction demand
Oct 19 W.R. Berkley WRB $1.14 Claims trends (including weather losses) and premium pricing
Oct 20 GE Aerospace GE $2.01 Defense budgets, aircraft delivery backlogs, and supply chain bottlenecks
Oct 20 Philip Morris International PM $2.33 Volume declines and pricing power
Oct 20 Netflix NFLX $0.82 Box office and streaming performance and content spending
Oct 20 RTX RTX $1.75 Defense budgets, aircraft delivery backlogs, and supply chain bottlenecks
Oct 20 Intuitive Surgical ISRG $2.13 Procedure volumes and hospital capital spending
Oct 20 Chubb CB $6.29 Claims trends (including weather losses) and premium pricing
Oct 20 Capital One Financial COF $5.43 Credit demand, delinquencies, and interest rate sensitivity
Oct 20 3M MMM $2.41 Order backlogs across diversified end markets
Oct 20 General Motors GM $3.50 Vehicle demand, EV transition costs, and pricing and incentives
Oct 20 Northrop Grumman NOC $7.21 Defense budgets, aircraft delivery backlogs, and supply chain bottlenecks
Oct 20 PACCAR PCAR $1.61 Equipment demand tied to construction and mining activity
Oct 20 MSCI MSCI $5.02 Trading volumes and data and subscription revenue growth
Oct 20 United Airlines Holdings UAL $2.91 Ticket demand and fuel costs
Oct 20 EQT EQT $0.43 Crude and natural gas prices
Oct 20 Halliburton HAL $0.58 Drilling activity and oilfield spending
Oct 20 Synchrony Financial SYF $2.42 Credit demand, delinquencies, and interest rate sensitivity
Oct 20 KeyCorp KEY $0.46 Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact
Oct 20 Omnicom Group OMC $2.68 Ad spending trends across channels
Oct 20 Genuine Parts GPC $2.10 Supply chain volumes and industrial demand
Oct 20 Equifax EFX $2.21 Client demand and project pipelines
Oct 20 Hasbro HAS $1.88 Consumer discretionary demand for recreational goods
Oct 21 Tesla TSLA $0.24 Vehicle demand, EV transition costs, and pricing and incentives
Oct 21 Lam Research LRCX $2.17 Chip fab capex cycles and equipment order backlogs
Oct 21 Texas Instruments TXN $2.39 Chip demand, supply bottlenecks, and AI infrastructure spending
Oct 21 Thermo Fisher Scientific TMO $6.40 Research spending and biotech and pharma demand
Oct 21 International Business Machines IBM $2.89 Enterprise IT spending and project pipelines
Oct 21 Abbott Laboratories ABT $1.43 Procedure volumes and hospital capital spending
Oct 21 AT&T T $0.61 Subscriber trends and network capex
Oct 21 NextEra Energy NEE $1.20 Regulatory rate cases and weather-driven demand
Oct 21 Danaher DHR $1.96 Research spending and biotech and pharma demand
Oct 21 Progressive PGR $4.37 Claims trends (including weather losses) and premium pricing
Oct 21 CME Group CME $2.95 Trading volumes and data and subscription revenue growth
Oct 21 Elevance Health ELV $4.66 Medical cost trends and membership growth
Oct 21 CSX CSX $0.53 Freight volumes and fuel costs
Oct 21 Moody's MCO $4.26 Trading volumes and data and subscription revenue growth
Oct 21 Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies WAB $2.72 Equipment demand tied to construction and mining activity
Oct 21 Northern Trust NTRS $2.86 Assets under management and market-driven fee revenue
Oct 21 Crown Castle CCI $1.16 Wireless carrier capex and tower leasing demand
Oct 21 Southwest Airlines LUV $0.63 Ticket demand and fuel costs
Oct 21 Packaging Corporation of America PKG $2.94 Packaging volumes and input costs
Oct 22 Procter & Gamble PG $1.89 Consumer demand and input cost trends
Oct 22 Union Pacific UNP $3.44 Freight volumes and fuel costs
Oct 22 Newmont NEM $1.94 Gold prices and mining production costs
Oct 22 Valero Energy VLO $18.15 Refining margins and fuel demand
Oct 22 Lockheed Martin LMT $7.25 Defense budgets, aircraft delivery backlogs, and supply chain bottlenecks
Oct 22 Blackstone BX $1.34 Assets under management and market-driven fee revenue
Oct 22 Comcast CMCSA $0.98 Subscriber losses and streaming competition
Oct 22 Norfolk Southern NSC $3.50 Freight volumes and fuel costs
Oct 22 Honeywell International HON $2.16 Order backlogs across diversified end markets
Oct 22 Comfort Systems USA FIX $12.42 Project backlogs and infrastructure spending
Oct 22 Nasdaq NDAQ $1.03 Trading volumes and data and subscription revenue growth
Oct 22 CBRE Group CBRE $1.98 Transaction volumes and commission trends
Oct 22 Roper Technologies ROP $5.78 Industrial and scientific equipment demand
Oct 22 PG&E PCG $0.40 Regulatory rate cases and weather-driven demand
Oct 22 Huntington Bancshares HBAN $0.39 Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact
Oct 22 VeriSign VRSN $2.42 Cloud demand and infrastructure spending
Oct 22 West Pharmaceutical Services WST $2.18 Procedure volumes and input costs
Oct 22 Dover DOV $2.85 Capex cycles and order backlogs
Oct 22 Quest Diagnostics DGX $2.85 Reimbursement rates and patient volume trends
Oct 22 PulteGroup PHM $2.62 Mortgage rates, housing demand, and land and construction costs
Oct 22 Dow DOW $0.68 Input costs and industrial demand cycles
Oct 22 Tractor Supply TSCO $0.40 Category-specific consumer demand trends
Oct 22 Allegion ALLE $2.48 Housing starts and renovation demand
Oct 22 Deckers Outdoor DECK $1.82 Consumer discretionary demand and brand momentum

WEEK AHEAD

DateEvent
Oct 14, 2026 U.S. CPI (September)
Q3 inflation summary; key input for Nov and Dec FOMC decisions.

ON THE RADAR

DateEvent
Oct 27–28, 2026 FOMC Meeting & Rate Decision (Oct 27–28, 2026) – Rate decision Oct 28 at 2 PM ET
No updated rate-path forecast at this meeting; decision driven by September jobs and inflation data. Market consensus: hold.
Oct 29, 2026 U.S. Q3 2026 GDP Advance Estimate
Consensus: +1.8% annualized – First read on Q3 growth; consensus +1.8% annualized after a soft Q2. A miss would reinforce rate cut case.

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Marz Capital – The Brief · Sourced from Yahoo Finance, BLS, StatsCan, FRED, CNBC, Reuters & web search · Note: some 1M/YTD/1Y market columns show n/a where data was unavailable at time of research · Treasury "ATH" reflects the past 20 years, not full history, since older-regime peaks (e.g. ~15% in 1981) aren't a meaningful comparison to today

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