The Brief

Friday, October 9, 2026

“If you aren't thinking about owning a stock for 10 years, don't even think about owning it for 10 minutes.”– Warren Buffett

SUMMARY

Nasdaq suffers its worst day in seven weeks as OpenAI's reported $20bn revenue shortfall reignites doubts over AI spending.

SMH and XLK sell off sharply as chip stocks lead the Nasdaq lower on AI sustainability fears.

Gold extends its rally as the PBoC adds roughly 23 tonnes to reserves in September.

Copper climbs as Chinese stockpiles thin out after the holiday break, leaving room for restocking.

Treasury yields ease off two-decade highs after a strong 30-year bond auction draws solid demand.

Energy shares rally even as Brent oil slips, a divergence not explained by today's headlines.

EM equities underperform, likely caught in the broader tech-led risk-off move.

Financials outperform as Treasury volatility (MOVE) falls and rate pressure stabilizes.

MARKET & MACRO DATA

	Value	1D	1M	YTD	1Y	ATH
S&P 500	7,765	▼ 0.47%	▲ 1.20%	▲ 13.22%	▲ 15.30%	▼ 1.01%
Nasdaq	27,193	▼ 1.25%	▲ 2.92%	▲ 17.03%	▲ 18.11%	▼ 1.91%
Russell 2000	2,794	▲ 0.03%	▼ 5.61%	▲ 11.40%	▲ 13.18%	▼ 8.98%
EM (EEM)	$66	▼ 1.89%	▼ 3.97%	▲ 17.53%	▲ 22.57%	▼ 7.64%
Financials (XLF)	$54	▲ 0.89%	▼ 5.36%	▼ 1.27%	▲ 1.71%	▼ 7.46%
Energy (XLE)	$65	▲ 2.97%	▲ 0.73%	▲ 42.91%	▲ 48.68%	▼ 28.26%
Technology (XLK)	$198	▼ 1.79%	▲ 5.27%	▲ 37.06%	▲ 36.31%	▼ 9.04%
AI ETF (SMH)	$607	▼ 2.84%	▲ 5.85%	▲ 62.68%	▲ 75.91%	▼ 9.61%
Cons Disc (XLY)	$112	▲ 0.31%	▼ 2.00%	▼ 5.61%	▼ 5.02%	▼ 39.40%
Gold ($/oz)	$4,205	▲ 1.15%	▼ 5.74%	▼ 2.88%	▲ 5.84%	▼ 24.73%
Bitcoin (USD)	$82,427	▲ 0.92%	▲ 5.33%	▼ 8.36%	▼ 32.27%	▼ 34.68%
Copper ($/lb)	$6.68	▲ 2.42%	▼ 1.87%	▲ 18.38%	▲ 31.54%	▼ 2.25%
Brent Oil ($/bbl)	$103	▼ 1.16%	▲ 1.84%	▲ 69.66%	▲ 58.03%	▼ 30.09%
Nat Gas ($/MMBtu)	$3.12	▼ 1.55%	▲ 10.52%	▼ 13.79%	▼ 4.59%	▼ 80.23%
VIX (Volatility)	15.28	▼ 0.84%	▼ 7.17%	▲ 5.31%	▼ 7.00%	▼ 82.93%
MOVE (Bond Volatility)	100.70	▼ 1.81%	▲ 32.26%	▲ 61.48%	▲ 35.86%	▼ 61.94%
3-Month T-Bill	4.22%	▲ 1bps	▲ 28bps	▲ 57bps	▲ 21bps	▼ 141bps
2Y Treasury	4.77%	▼ 2bps	▲ 38bps	▲ 130bps	▲ 120bps	▼ 42bps
10Y Treasury	5.28%	▲ 1bps	▲ 48bps	▲ 109bps	▲ 114bps	▼ 3bps
US HY Spread	3.09%	▲ 6bps	▲ 41bps	▲ 26bps	▲ 27bps	▼ 152bps
US Dollar Index (DXY)	102.19	▲ 0.05%	▲ 3.46%	▲ 3.83%	▲ 2.66%	▼ 37.96%
US Unemployment	4.20%	Sep 2026 · Next release: November 6, 2026
US CPI (YoY)	3.40%	Aug 2026 · BLS CPI-U all items NSA
SOFR 3M (90d avg)	3.71%	Rate only · n/a across change periods

ECONOMICS, MARKETS & BUSINESS

Nasdaq posts worst day in seven weeks on chip selloff – Tech shares led Wall Street lower as speculation over OpenAI's revenue reignited doubts about the AI spending boom, with the Nasdaq 100 sinking 1.4% in its worst session in seven weeks while a chipmaker gauge slumped 3.4%. Ask Claude ›
Nvidia-backed Firmus Grid postpones planned IPO – Firmus Grid Ltd., an Australian data-center company backed by Nvidia, is set to postpone its initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matter. Ask Claude ›
Strong 30-year bond auction pulls yields off two-decade high – A 30-year US debt auction on Thursday drew solid demand, pulling long-dated Treasury yields back from their highest level in more than two decades. Ask Claude ›
Gold extends rally as PBoC keeps adding to reserves – Gold rose 1.7%, recovering from a two-month low earlier in the week, after China's central bank added roughly 23 tonnes of gold to its reserves in September. Ask Claude ›
Delta Air Lines set to open Wall Street's earnings season – Delta Air Lines is expected to report earnings on October 9 alongside the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading, kicking off a busy stretch for corporate results and economic data. Ask Claude ›
European gas eases even as Hormuz supply risks linger – Dutch TTF natural gas prices softened alongside a broader pullback in energy markets, though ongoing Middle Eastern supply concerns and uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz kept prices supported. Ask Claude ›
Chinese copper stockpiles thin out after holiday break – Chinese copper inventories are running low following the national holiday, leaving room for restocking in the metal. Ask Claude ›

TECH & AI

OpenAI's $20bn revenue gap fuels AI spending doubts – A Financial Times report found OpenAI's annualized revenue was $20 billion below previously signaled levels, with the ChatGPT maker now tracking toward roughly $50 billion versus earlier reports of nearly $70 billion, reviving concerns about the sustainability of the AI spending boom. Ask Claude ›
Samsung guides to record profit on AI memory-chip demand – Samsung Electronics forecast its strongest-ever third-quarter profit amid robust AI-fueled demand for memory chips, with sales more than doubling to 195 trillion won from 86.06 trillion won a year earlier, even though the figure came in just shy of the top end of market expectations. Ask Claude ›
SoftBank seeks $100bn from Gulf states for AI fund – SoftBank is seeking up to $100 billion from Gulf investors, including the UAE, to establish a fund that would acquire companies and improve their operations using AI, according to the FT. Ask Claude ›
Broadcom arranges $50bn financing for OpenAI's custom chips – Broadcom is working to arrange more than $50 billion in financing tied to the custom AI chips it is developing with OpenAI, according to a Wall Street Journal report. Ask Claude ›
OpenAI fires three researchers over policy breach – OpenAI dismissed three researchers after they breached the company's policy on handling sensitive information, according to a report. Ask Claude ›
US suspends foreign-worker visas tied to Microsoft, Adobe – US authorities suspended foreign-worker visas connected to Microsoft and Adobe, according to a Financial Times report in the outlet's daily press digest. Ask Claude ›

WORLD & POLITICS

Suspected plague death in Siberia puts ~200 under watch – A lab worker at Russia's Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute died of what the regional governor called "pneumonia of undetermined" origin, and Russian officials told the WHO her illness resembled a typical acute respiratory infection with no plague case recorded in her or any contact, even as at least 197 people who had contact with her were placed under medical isolation and the US government said it was closely monitoring the situation. Ask Claude ›
Trump rules out striking Iran before US midterm elections – President Trump said the US would not attack Iran ahead of November's midterm elections, citing "productive discussions" with Tehran in a social media post. Ask Claude ›
Gaza ceasefire remains stalled a year after its signing – A year after Trump's Gaza peace plan took effect, the broader agreement remains stalled, with Hamas still armed and Israeli forces continuing strikes despite the absence of a full-scale return to war. Ask Claude ›

DEALS

SpaceX, the Elon Musk-led satellite and rocket company, agreed to acquire a nationwide portfolio of 800 MHz low-band wireless spectrum licenses from digital infrastructure investor Grain Management for approximately $8 billion in cash to expand its Starlink Mobile direct-to-phone service, in a deal announced October 8 that sent telecom stocks tumbling and tower operators higher. Source ›
Boots, the British pharmacy and beauty retailer, will be acquired from Sycamore Partners and the Pessina family by Wittington Investments, the Canadian Weston family's holding company, in partnership with Fairfax Financial, for $8.9 billion including assumed debt, with Galen Weston set to become Boots' chairman upon closing in Q1 2027. Source ›
PTC, a Nasdaq-listed industrial and product-lifecycle-management software maker, agreed to be acquired by Schneider Electric in an all-cash deal valuing its equity at roughly $22.6 billion and carrying an implied enterprise value of $23.7 billion, with PTC shareholders set to receive $205 per share, a 42.3% premium, in a transaction expected to close by Q3 2027. Source ›
RXO, the freight brokerage and logistics provider, will be acquired by C.H. Robinson Worldwide in a $5.8 billion merger agreement signed October 5, combining two of the largest players in North American truckload brokerage. Source ›
Type One Energy, a Knoxville, Tennessee-based commercial fusion developer building a 400-megawatt stellarator plant at the Tennessee Valley Authority's Bull Run site, raised $200 million in a Series B round co-led by Breakthrough Energy Ventures and Clutterbuck Capital, with Lowercarbon Capital, Siemens Energy Ventures and SiteGround Capital also joining, bringing its total funding to more than $400 million. Source ›
Homeward, an Austin, Texas-based cash-back real estate financing company, raised $120 million in Series D funding led by Saluda Grade, with participation from Continental General Insurance Co., Citi Ventures, Magnetar, Harmony Partners, Norwest, Adams Street Partners, LiveOak Ventures, Parker89, Era Ventures and Javelin Venture Partners. Source ›
Volantis, a San Francisco-based inference semiconductor startup, raised $88 million in Series A funding led by Lachy Groom and Abstract Ventures, with backing from John Doerr, VXI Capital, Triatomic, Susa Ventures, Dwarkesh Patel, Naveen Rao and Sholto Douglas. Source ›
Myriad360, a systems integrator, received a majority investment backing from private equity firm One Equity Partners as part of a wave of tech-focused PE deals this week that also saw Main Capital Partners acquire IT visibility software firm Raynet from PINOVA Capital. Source ›

EARNINGS RELEASES (next 15 days)

Date	Company	EPS Forecast	Watch
Oct 9	Delta Air Lines DAL	$1.80	Ticket demand and fuel costs
Oct 13	J P Morgan Chase JPM	$5.94	Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 13	Johnson & Johnson JNJ	$2.53	Drug pipeline progress and pricing and patent pressure
Oct 13	UnitedHealth Group UNH	$4.12	Medical cost trends and membership growth
Oct 13	Goldman Sachs Group GS	$12.90	Deal volumes and trading activity
Oct 13	Wells Fargo WFC	$1.85	Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 13	Citigroup C	$2.66	Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 13	Domino's Pizza DPZ	$4.33	Traffic trends and input and labor cost inflation
Oct 14	Bank of America BAC	$1.11	Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 14	Morgan Stanley MS	$2.83	Deal volumes and trading activity
Oct 14	BlackRock BLK	$14.01	Assets under management and market-driven fee revenue
Oct 14	Progressive PGR	$4.37	Claims trends (including weather losses) and premium pricing
Oct 14	Fastenal FAST	$0.34	Industrial demand and distribution volumes
Oct 14	State Street STT	$3.63	Assets under management and market-driven fee revenue
Oct 15	Charles Schwab SCHW	$1.66	Deal volumes and trading activity
Oct 15	Prologis PLD	$1.58	Warehouse demand and e-commerce-driven leasing
Oct 15	Bank Of New York Mellon BNY	$2.26	Assets under management and market-driven fee revenue
Oct 15	U.S. Bancorp USB	$1.32	Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 15	PNC Financial Services Group PNC	$4.97	Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 15	Marsh MRSH	$1.96	Premium growth and commission trends
Oct 15	Interactive Brokers Group IBKR	$0.66	Deal volumes and trading activity
Oct 15	J.B. Hunt Transport Services JBHT	$1.95	Freight volumes and fuel surcharges
Oct 16	Travelers Companies TRV	$6.86	Claims trends (including weather losses) and premium pricing
Oct 16	Truist Financial TFC	$1.17	Net interest income, credit quality, and loan growth
Oct 16	M&T Bank MTB	$4.98	Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact
Oct 16	Citizens Financial Group CFG	$1.38	Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact
Oct 16	Regions Financial RF	$0.67	Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact
Oct 19	Fifth Third Bancorp FITB	$1.09	Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact
Oct 19	Steel Dynamics STLD	$5.41	Steel prices and industrial and construction demand
Oct 19	W.R. Berkley WRB	$1.14	Claims trends (including weather losses) and premium pricing
Oct 20	GE Aerospace GE	$2.01	Defense budgets, aircraft delivery backlogs, and supply chain bottlenecks
Oct 20	Philip Morris International PM	$2.33	Volume declines and pricing power
Oct 20	Netflix NFLX	$0.82	Box office and streaming performance and content spending
Oct 20	RTX RTX	$1.75	Defense budgets, aircraft delivery backlogs, and supply chain bottlenecks
Oct 20	Intuitive Surgical ISRG	$2.13	Procedure volumes and hospital capital spending
Oct 20	Chubb CB	$6.29	Claims trends (including weather losses) and premium pricing
Oct 20	Capital One Financial COF	$5.43	Credit demand, delinquencies, and interest rate sensitivity
Oct 20	3M MMM	$2.41	Order backlogs across diversified end markets
Oct 20	General Motors GM	$3.50	Vehicle demand, EV transition costs, and pricing and incentives
Oct 20	Northrop Grumman NOC	$7.21	Defense budgets, aircraft delivery backlogs, and supply chain bottlenecks
Oct 20	PACCAR PCAR	$1.61	Equipment demand tied to construction and mining activity
Oct 20	MSCI MSCI	$5.02	Trading volumes and data and subscription revenue growth
Oct 20	United Airlines Holdings UAL	$2.91	Ticket demand and fuel costs
Oct 20	EQT EQT	$0.43	Crude and natural gas prices
Oct 20	Synchrony Financial SYF	$2.42	Credit demand, delinquencies, and interest rate sensitivity
Oct 20	Halliburton HAL	$0.58	Drilling activity and oilfield spending
Oct 20	KeyCorp KEY	$0.46	Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact
Oct 20	Omnicom Group OMC	$2.68	Ad spending trends across channels
Oct 20	Genuine Parts GPC	$2.10	Supply chain volumes and industrial demand
Oct 20	Equifax EFX	$2.21	Client demand and project pipelines
Oct 20	Hasbro HAS	$1.88	Consumer discretionary demand for recreational goods
Oct 21	Tesla TSLA	$0.24	Vehicle demand, EV transition costs, and pricing and incentives
Oct 21	Lam Research LRCX	$2.17	Chip fab capex cycles and equipment order backlogs
Oct 21	Texas Instruments TXN	$2.39	Chip demand, supply bottlenecks, and AI infrastructure spending
Oct 21	Thermo Fisher Scientific TMO	$6.40	Research spending and biotech and pharma demand
Oct 21	International Business Machines IBM	$2.89	Enterprise IT spending and project pipelines
Oct 21	Abbott Laboratories ABT	$1.43	Procedure volumes and hospital capital spending
Oct 21	AT&T T	$0.61	Subscriber trends and network capex
Oct 21	NextEra Energy NEE	$1.20	Regulatory rate cases and weather-driven demand
Oct 21	Danaher DHR	$1.96	Research spending and biotech and pharma demand
Oct 21	Progressive PGR	$4.37	Claims trends (including weather losses) and premium pricing
Oct 21	CME Group CME	$2.95	Trading volumes and data and subscription revenue growth
Oct 21	Elevance Health ELV	$4.66	Medical cost trends and membership growth
Oct 21	CSX CSX	$0.53	Freight volumes and fuel costs
Oct 21	Moody's MCO	$4.26	Trading volumes and data and subscription revenue growth
Oct 21	Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies WAB	$2.72	Equipment demand tied to construction and mining activity
Oct 21	Northern Trust NTRS	$2.86	Assets under management and market-driven fee revenue
Oct 21	Crown Castle CCI	$1.16	Wireless carrier capex and tower leasing demand
Oct 21	Southwest Airlines LUV	$0.63	Ticket demand and fuel costs
Oct 21	Packaging Corporation of America PKG	$2.94	Packaging volumes and input costs
Oct 22	Procter & Gamble PG	$1.89	Consumer demand and input cost trends
Oct 22	Union Pacific UNP	$3.44	Freight volumes and fuel costs
Oct 22	Valero Energy VLO	$18.15	Refining margins and fuel demand
Oct 22	Newmont NEM	$1.94	Gold prices and mining production costs
Oct 22	Lockheed Martin LMT	$7.25	Defense budgets, aircraft delivery backlogs, and supply chain bottlenecks
Oct 22	Blackstone BX	$1.34	Assets under management and market-driven fee revenue
Oct 22	Comcast CMCSA	$0.98	Subscriber losses and streaming competition
Oct 22	Norfolk Southern NSC	$3.50	Freight volumes and fuel costs
Oct 22	Honeywell International HON	$2.16	Order backlogs across diversified end markets
Oct 22	Comfort Systems USA FIX	$12.42	Project backlogs and infrastructure spending
Oct 22	Nasdaq NDAQ	$1.03	Trading volumes and data and subscription revenue growth
Oct 22	CBRE Group CBRE	$1.98	Transaction volumes and commission trends
Oct 22	Roper Technologies ROP	$5.78	Industrial and scientific equipment demand
Oct 22	PG&E PCG	$0.40	Regulatory rate cases and weather-driven demand
Oct 22	Huntington Bancshares HBAN	$0.39	Credit card delinquencies, deposit costs, and interest rate impact
Oct 22	VeriSign VRSN	$2.42	Cloud demand and infrastructure spending
Oct 22	West Pharmaceutical Services WST	$2.18	Procedure volumes and input costs
Oct 22	Dover DOV	$2.85	Capex cycles and order backlogs
Oct 22	Quest Diagnostics DGX	$2.85	Reimbursement rates and patient volume trends
Oct 22	PulteGroup PHM	$2.62	Mortgage rates, housing demand, and land and construction costs
Oct 22	Dow DOW	$0.68	Input costs and industrial demand cycles
Oct 22	Tractor Supply TSCO	$0.40	Category-specific consumer demand trends
Oct 22	Allegion ALLE	$2.48	Housing starts and renovation demand
Oct 22	Deckers Outdoor DECK	$1.82	Consumer discretionary demand and brand momentum
Oct 23	American Express AXP	$4.50	Credit demand, delinquencies, and interest rate sensitivity
Oct 23	General Dynamics GD	$4.14	Defense budgets, aircraft delivery backlogs, and supply chain bottlenecks
Oct 23	Illinois Tool Works ITW	$2.99	Capex cycles and order backlogs
Oct 23	SLB SLB	$0.62	Drilling activity and oilfield spending

WEEK AHEAD

Date	Event
Oct 14, 2026	U.S. CPI (September) Q3 inflation summary; key input for Nov and Dec FOMC decisions.

ON THE RADAR

Date	Event
Oct 27–28, 2026	FOMC Meeting & Rate Decision (Oct 27–28, 2026) – Rate decision Oct 28 at 2 PM ET No updated rate-path forecast at this meeting; decision driven by September jobs and inflation data. Market consensus: hold.
Oct 29, 2026	U.S. Q3 2026 GDP Advance Estimate Consensus: +1.8% annualized – First read on Q3 growth; consensus +1.8% annualized after a soft Q2. A miss would reinforce rate cut case.

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Marz Capital – The Brief · Sourced from Yahoo Finance, BLS, StatsCan, FRED, CNBC, Reuters & web search · Note: some 1M/YTD/1Y market columns show n/a where data was unavailable at time of research · Treasury "ATH" reflects the past 20 years, not full history, since older-regime peaks (e.g. ~15% in 1981) aren't a meaningful comparison to today

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